Gate News reported that on March 18, Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioning "Inflation" more than 40 times during the press conference on March (2:30 AM) is currently 80%. Additionally, the probability of mentioning "Gold/Oil" is 93%; the probability of mentioning "Iran" is 62%.
Gate News reports that on March 18, the Federal Reserve's FOMC released a statement on March 19, with three changes compared to the January statement:
First, adjustment to unemployment rate description, changing "unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization" to "unemployment rate has changed little in recent months";
Second, addition of Middle East situation-related statement, pointing out "the impact of Middle East developments on the U.S. economy remains uncertain";
Third, shift in stance by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, previously supporting a 25 basis point rate cut at the last meeting, now supporting keeping rates unchanged.
Gate News report: On March 18, the Federal Reserve's FOMC released economic projections on March 19. Regarding GDP growth, the median projections for end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively, compared to previous December projections of 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9%. For PCE inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index), the median projections for end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0% respectively, compared to previous December projections of 2.4%, 2.1%, and 2.0%.
Gate News Alert: On March 18, the dot plot released by the Federal Reserve on March 19 shows that 19 officials are divided on 2026 interest rate policy: 7 officials believe rates should remain unchanged throughout the year, 7 officials believe rates should be cut by a cumulative 25 basis points, 2 officials believe rates should be cut by a cumulative 50 basis points, 2 officials believe rates should be cut by a cumulative 75 basis points, and 1 official believes rates should be cut by a cumulative 100 basis points. Overall, the median of the dot plot indicates a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026.
Gate News, on March 18, the Federal Reserve's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) issued a statement on March 19. Governor Miran dissented on this interest rate decision. Committee members passed this rate decision with an 11-1 vote, compared to a 10-2 vote at the previous meeting.
Gate News Report: On March 18, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at this meeting is 0%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 98.9%, and the probability of raising rates by 25 basis points is 1.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by April is 2.0%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 96.9%, and the probability of raising rates by 25 basis points is 1.0%. By June, the probability of cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points is 16.3%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 82.5%, and the probability of raising rates by 25 basis points is 0.9%.
Market analyst Jared Blikre pointed out that the global fund manager survey released by Bank of America shows that large institutional investors have increased their positions in emerging market stocks and commodities, while reducing their US dollar holdings. Powell's remarks have a significant impact on market trends; if the US dollar index breaks through 100, it will increase investment pressure, while the opposite would help emerging market development.
Gate News reported that on March 18, according to Coinglass data, on March 19, BARD contracts on mainstream CEXs reached extreme negative funding rates, with BARD contract hourly funding rates on a certain CEX platform reaching -0.46%. According to market information from a certain CEX, BARD dropped over 50% intraday at one point, currently trading at $0.59, rebounding approximately 10% from the session low of $0.54 in the past half hour.
