in 2022 when $BTC broke the downtrend, it rallied 13%, then FTX happened and collapsed to a new low. If the same happens here that would be 82-83k

$BTC at $78,000, are you scared? Institutions poured $1 billion in five days, with BlackRock's holdings reaching a record high of 806,700 coins, Russia just legislated Bitcoin as property— but what about the price? Dropped from 126k, down nearly 40%, now hovering around 78,000, like a broken-legged old dog, unable to stand steadily. First look at the surface: a slight increase of 0.05%, like a dead person's ECG. In the past 24 hours, BTC price fluctuated by 0.05%, basically unchanged. From the October high of 126k to now, down nearly 40%. MACD shows a death cross crossing zero, K-line shows "false breakout + long upper shadow," technicals tell you: this thing still needs to grind. First thing: institutions are疯狂抄底, you saw it right. In the past five days, institutions have poured nearly $1 billion into Bitcoin. The US spot ETF attracted $996 million last week, another $238 million on Monday. BlackRock's ETF holdings hit a record high, MicroStrategy spent another $2.5 billion last week to buy over 30k BTC. Second thing: supply is shrinking rapidly, exchanges' BTC is being moved out. In the past seven days, exchange Bitcoin reserves decreased by 18,400 coins, reaching multi-year lows. This means selling pressure is decreasing. All the coins are being moved into cold wallets by institutions, locked away. Third thing: Russia has taken action, 20 million new users are entering. Russia just legislated, explicitly recognizing Bitcoin as property, allowing it for foreign trade. This means a market with 20 million potential users has just opened its door. On one side: institutions are抄底 with $1 billion, supply hitting multi-year lows, 20 million Russian users entering. On the other side: BSI issued a bear market warning, profit-taking activities are three times higher than local highs, negative financing rates indicate bears are piling in. Key level: 75,000, the last bottom line for bulls and bears. 75,000 is the 100-day moving average, the lower boundary of the box, the last line of defense for bulls. Hold it, and a rebound to 80,000 is possible; break it, and it will head straight to 66,000-63,000. If you're a short-term trader: buy in batches at 75,000-76,000, aiming to take profit at 80,000 with 30%-50%, stop-loss at 73,500. If it breaks down, run, don’t hold. If you're a long-term player: lighten your position now, if it truly drops to 63,000-66,000, that’s the zone institutions love to accumulate, go all in. #比特币反弹 $BTC

Don't be fooled! Iran's one statement exposes the false illusion of a ceasefire, and market risks are already brewing beneath the surface While the outside world is still celebrating the ceasefire, a high-ranking Iranian official's statement directly shatters that illusion: Iran has never demanded a ceasefire. On April 22 local time, Iranian parliamentary official Aziz publicly stated that most of the public opposes the ceasefire, and the military views the ceasefire as an opportunity to "rearm," openly saying that the enemy is untrustworthy and has continuously broken promises. This "ceasefire" is just a brief halftime before the storm. Once the conflict escalates again, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz will rapidly increase, and the volatility window for assets like crude oil, gold, BTC, and others has quietly opened. Don't be fooled by the surface calm anymore. $BTC ‌$ETH ‌