The cautious statements from the Fed and the potential signals of a monetary policy shift from the Bank of Japan have jointly triggered expectations of tightening liquidity in global financial markets, severely impacting the crypto market. Bitcoin has significantly retreated from its peak of about $125,000 in October, once falling to around $85,000, with a single-day drop of nearly 6%, and the market fear index is in the "extreme fear" range. Meanwhile, over $637 million in long positions have been liquidated, and the alt season index has dropped to 25, indicating extremely weak market breadth. This article will analyze how central bank policies impact the crypto market through channels of funding costs and risk preferences, and explore the key signals needed for market stabilization.

The market in the fourth quarter of 2025 did not welcome the expected bull run, but instead staged a "massacre," with meme coins becoming one of the hardest-hit zones. The tokens TRUMP and MELANIA, based on the concept of Trump and Melania, continued their downward trend throughout the year, with declines of 78% and 96% respectively, far exceeding the average decline of 58% in the zone. On-chain data shows that market speculation interest in both has plummeted by 78% to 90%, with funds clearly flowing towards emerging hotspots like Privacy Coins. Although TRUMP still has over 600,000 holders showing some resilience, the outlook for these political meme coins remains bleak in the context of overall market liquidity shrinking, with the possibility of further declines.

On the first day of December, the crypto market suffered another heavy blow, with XRP leading the decline, plummeting 5.78% in a single day to $2.03. The trigger for this drop did not come from within the industry, but rather from the "hawkish" interest rate hike signals released by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Japanese government bond yields soared to their highest level since 2008, triggering massive "yen arbitrage trading" closures, leading to indiscriminate dumping of global high-risk assets. Despite the approval of the Spot XRP ETF and Vanguard preparing to open trading access, analysts warn that XRP may further dip towards the support around $1.82 under the short-term pressure of tightening macro liquidity. The market is undergoing a brutal stress test dominated by traditional finance variables.

As the market seeks direction amid a deep adjustment, artificial intelligence offers us another dimension of thought. ChatGPT's strong competitor Perplexity AI recently released price scenario predictions for XRP, Pi Network, and Bitcoin at the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, depicting a bipolar picture ranging from extreme optimism to deep pessimism. According to their analysis, Bitcoin could soar to $230,000, or it could fall deeply to $75,000; XRP is expected to hit a high of $8, but it may also stay around $2; while Pi Coin faces a fork in the road of doubling to $0.48 or continuing to dip to $0.18. These predictions are not set in stone, but they provide a valuable framework for understanding the macro variables and potential catalysts the current market faces.

Under the grand narrative of large-scale on-chain reality world assets (RWA) and traditional finance (TradFi), a core compliance bottleneck has always loomed ahead. The emergence of Rayls Protocol is aimed at solving this problem. As an innovative Layer 1 public chain with built-in KYC/AML mechanisms from the protocol layer, Rayls aims to build a compliance bridge connecting the traditional banking system and decentralized finance (DeFi).
The project has secured approximately $38 million in funding from top institutions such as ParaFi Capital, Tether, and Framework Ventures, with a total supply of its native token RLS being 10 billion. This article will delve into how Rayls attempts to become the underlying infrastructure for the trillion-dollar RWA market through technological integration and institutional design.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued a "No Action Letter" (NAL) for the ENERGY token of the blockchain energy project Fuse Energy, clearing key regulatory hurdles for its token issuance. This marks the second time the SEC has provided such an exemption for a DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network) project in a short period, indicating that this sector demonstrates unique advantages in regulatory compliance. Meanwhile, Fuse, as a UK energy tech startup, is experiencing rapid business growth and is currently raising a new round of financing at a valuation of up to $5 billion, a fivefold increase from four months ago. This case perfectly illustrates how "Blockchain + Physical Industry" projects can simultaneously gain regulatory recognition and attract traditional capital.

Due to the sluggish global trading financial markets, Bitcoin spot investors have failed to provide the necessary volume. Last week, the price of Bitcoin briefly soared to around $93,300, but fell below $85,000 at the beginning of this week. Binance's "Bitcoin to stablecoin reserve ratio" has fallen to its lowest level since 2018, with a large influx of stablecoins into the market ready to buy coins, but spot buyers are hesitant and may remain in a sideways pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve (FED) FOMC meeting.

In the context of a deep pullback in the crypto assets market, the traditional finance sector presents a stark contrast. Data from asset management company CoinShares shows that global crypto assets investment products (ETP/ETF) recorded a net inflow of $1.07 billion last week, ending a previous trend of net outflows totaling $5.7 billion over four consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, the world's second-largest asset management giant, Vanguard, announced a historic policy shift, allowing its more than 50 million brokerage clients to trade compliant ETFs and mutual funds of mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana starting this Tuesday. These two signals indicate that, despite short-term price pressure, institutional demand for long-term allocation to crypto assets and infrastructure acceptance is advancing with an irreversible momentum.

The unlocking of 190 million Tokens in December brought a significant supply event, affecting the price of Pi Network. Today's market big dump led to a decline in the prices of major assets, and the price of Pi Network also fell accordingly, with panic sentiment spreading in the market. The price of Pi coin dropped nearly 10%, then rebounded to a more solid support level, temporarily reporting at $0.233 on December 2.

The Financial Services Agency (FSA) of Japan first proposed a tax reform plan in mid-November, planning to present related legislation in early 2026, and both the government and the ruling coalition have expressed support. The new regulations aim to align the tax rules for Crypto Assets with those for other financial products (such as stocks and investment funds), where the profit tax rate is standardized at 20%, regardless of the amount of profit.

The newly emerged Layer 1 public chain Monad has fallen into a public relations storm initiated by industry pros. Arthur Hayes sharply criticized Monad in a podcast as a typical "high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation), low circulation" venture capital token, predicting its price could potentially experience a big dump of 99%. In response, Monad's founder Keone Hon rarely made a public statement, expressing respect while elaborating on Monad's technological innovations in areas such as speed, decentralization, and consensus mechanism, thereby refuting the accusation of being "another bear market chain." This public debate surrounding technical value and tokenomics highlights how the market is scrutinizing every new entrant with unprecedented rigor after the narrative around new public chains has cooled down.

What is Fuse Energy? It combines renewable energy services with decentralized infrastructure through a mobile application, allowing users to track and adjust their electricity consumption based on the availability of renewable energy. It is integrated into Project Zero, a blockchain-based initiative that uses Solana tokens to incentivize efficient energy consumption. Users earn tokens by participating in demand response, which can be redeemed for electricity bill discounts. The company claims its variable electricity rates are always cheaper than those of major suppliers in the UK.

The U.S. financial regulators have taken a key step. Travis Hill, acting chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), announced that a formal proposal for the implementation framework of the GENIUS Act (the "U.S. Stablecoin National Innovation and Establishment Act") will be introduced later this month. The act was signed into law by President Trump in July of this year and aims to establish the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. According to Hill's congressional testimony, the FDIC will be responsible for regulating and licensing its subordinate institutions to apply for the issuance of stablecoin subsidiaries, and will set standards for capital, liquidity, and reserve assets. This marks a shift in the U.S. regulation of the core payment settlement layer in the crypto ecosystem—stablecoins—from legislation to substantial enforcement operations.

MicroStrategy, the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin, faced a "crisis of faith" in early December. Its stock price fell dramatically to $156, causing the company's market capitalization to shrink to $45 billion, rare for it to be below its net worth of $48.4 billion after deducting debts from the 650,000 Bitcoins it holds. At the same time, the company announced the establishment of a $1.44 billion cash reserve to address liquidity risks, and its CEO acknowledged for the first time the existence of "red line" conditions under which it would be forced to sell Bitcoin. This series of events marks an unprecedented height of market concerns regarding the company's high leverage and one-sided betting strategy, as its stock price is undergoing a brutal test of its correlation with Bitcoin under extreme market conditions.

XRP follows the collapse of the crypto market, extinguishing hopes for an end to the sluggish market in October and November. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at a rate hike in December, with hawkish remarks causing Japanese government bond yields to soar to 1.84%, the highest level since April 2008, triggering Close Position in yen arbitrage trades. Vanguard this week provided a crypto assets ETF trading channel to its $10 trillion client base, which may drive a Rebound.

According to CoinShares' latest weekly report, the total inflow of funds into digital asset investment products reached $1.06 billion last week, reversing the previous four weeks of outflows (which totaled $5.7 billion). The shift in market sentiment stemmed from remarks made by Federal Reserve (FED) member John Williams, who stated that monetary policy remains tight, boosting market expectations for a rate cut this month.

Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset management company with a management scale of up to $8 trillion, officially announced the end of its years-long ban on encryption. Starting from December 2, more than 50 million brokerage clients will be able to trade compliant ETFs and mutual funds of mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and Solana on the platform. This capitulation, seen by the market as the "last bastion," marks a significant milestone in the legitimization process of crypto assets within the TradFi system. Even during the market's deep pullback winter, the long-term acceptance signal conveyed remains deafening.

Polygon CEO Sandeep Nailwal warned that MicroStrategy could become the "LUNA of this cycle," as MSTR stock is falling faster than Bitcoin. MicroStrategy's stock price plummeted nearly 10% to $159.77, down an astonishing 66% from a high of about $473 in July. The 650,000 Bitcoins held by MicroStrategy account for 3.1% of the total supply, facing the risk of a "death spiral."

Legendary trader Arthur Hayes publicly criticized Monad, claiming it could fall 99%. Monad's founder responded positively, and the two sides engaged in an intense public confrontation. Monad co-founder Keone Hon emphasized that Monad introduces the MonadBFT Consensus Mechanism, asynchronous execution, and an annual inflation rate of only 2%, and pointed out that locked tokens cannot be staked, with the token sale adopting a "retail investor priority fill" method.

In early December, global risk assets experienced a synchronized sell-off, with Bitcoin plummeting 5.7% to $85,990 in a single day, and S&P 500 futures falling 0.6%. The trigger for this cross-asset class decline surprisingly came from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's "hawkish" signals regarding potential interest rate hikes. As the last major economy to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy, Japan's policy shift expectations not only pushed up government bond yields but also potentially triggered massive "trap" trades to Close Position, leading to liquidity being withdrawn from high-risk assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks. This reveals the increasing fragility and interconnectedness among various risk assets against the backdrop of tightening global liquidity.