#FebNonfarmPayrollsUnexpectedlyFall $BTC ‌

1. The "Traffic Light" Effect of Data Tonight's core expectation is an increase of 59,000 people. In the current macroeconomic context, data is not necessarily "better the stronger": • Data significantly exceeding expectations (e.g., >80,000 people): Indicates an overheated labor market, and the Federal Reserve may continue to delay interest rate cuts. This would be bullish for the US dollar (DXY) and put downward pressure on BTC, potentially triggering a large-scale liquidation of long positions below $70,000 (approximately $229 million). • Data meeting or below expectations (e.g., <50,000 people): This would reinforce expectations of rate cuts, giving a "shot in the arm" to risk assets. Once BTC breaks through $72,000, the "supply vacuum zone" you mentioned earlier is above, which could easily trigger a chain of short liquidations (about $643 million), heading straight for $76,000-$80,000.

1. The "Traffic Light" Effect of Data Tonight's core expectation is an increase of 59,000 people. In the current macroeconomic context, data is not necessarily "better the stronger": • Data significantly exceeding expectations (e.g., >80,000 people): Indicates an overheated labor market, and the Federal Reserve may continue to delay interest rate cuts. This would be bullish for the US dollar (DXY) and put downward pressure on BTC, potentially triggering a large-scale liquidation of long positions below $70,000 (approximately $229 million). • Data meeting or below expectations (e.g., <50,000 people): This would reinforce expectations of rate cuts, giving a "shot in the arm" to risk assets. Once BTC breaks through $72,000, the "supply vacuum zone" you mentioned earlier is above, which could easily trigger a chain of short liquidations (about $643 million), heading straight for $76,000-$80,000.