Ethereum King Returns: Surges 8% in a Day, Outselling Bitcoin. Can the Staking ETF Trigger a New Bull Market?

Ethereum recently led a strong rally in the crypto market, with prices surging over 8% in 24 hours, reaching close to $3,400, far outperforming Bitcoin’s 4.5% gain. The rally was driven by multiple positive catalysts: BlackRock officially filed for an Ethereum staking trust, bringing a new narrative of “yield-bearing ETF” for ETH; after the Fusaka upgrade, network fees were significantly reduced, increasing ecosystem attractiveness; on-chain data shows that whales have accumulated approximately $3.15 billion worth of ETH over the past three weeks. Technical analysis indicates that ETH price has successfully reclaimed the critical 50-week moving average, with similar historical patterns indicating potential gains of over 100%, and market sentiment turning notably more optimistic.

The Mystery of Ethereum’s Leadership: Why Did It Suddenly Outperform Bitcoin?

This week, the crypto market experienced a broad rally, with Ethereum at the center of attention. Its native token ETH once approached $3,400, with an intraday increase of over 8%, greatly outperforming Bitcoin’s 4.5% rise and boosting overall altcoin market sentiment. A key indicator—the ETH/BTC exchange rate—rose to its highest level since late October, clearly signaling a capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum. So, what forces are driving Ethereum’s independent strong performance?

Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group, pointed out in a report that the main drivers are “improved regulatory expectations and renewed optimism around ETF-related capital inflows,” especially with the prospect of staking features being incorporated into fund products. This is not unfounded: on Monday, asset manager BlackRock filed an application to convert its spot ETH ETF into an “iShares Ethereum Staking Trust.” This move was seen as a major positive, as it was the first to bundle Ethereum’s core value capture mechanism—staking yields—into a standardized product aimed at traditional financial markets, greatly broadening the potential investor base.

Beyond the ETF narrative, positive regulatory signals regarding tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) also bolstered Ethereum. SEC Chair Paul Atkins recently praised tokenization as a key innovation in capital markets that could reduce settlement risks. As a leading smart contract platform and issuer of tokens, Ethereum stands to benefit most from this trend. Fundamentally, the recent Fusaka upgrade reduced Layer 1 transaction fees to around $0.01 and adjusted the fee burning mechanism, allowing ETH to benefit more directly from Layer 2 ecosystem prosperity—these factors form a solid foundation for the price increase.

BlackRock’s “Big Move”: How the Staking ETF Could Reshape Ethereum’s Valuation Logic?

If approval of spot ETFs has opened the gates for traditional capital to enter Ethereum, then BlackRock’s latest application for a “Staking ETF” is akin to building a “hydropower station” behind the dam, aiming to convert capital inflows directly into ecosystem value and scarcity for ETH. The core of this proposal is to allow the trust to stake its ETH holdings and distribute the generated yields to shareholders. This design cleverly turns Ethereum’s “interest-earning asset” attribute into a financial product.

Key Information of BlackRock’s Ethereum Staking Trust

• Application Date: Submitted Form S-1 amendment this Monday.
• Product Name: Proposed to be renamed as iShares Ethereum Staking Trust.
• Main Function: Stake ETH held by the trust on the Ethereum network to generate yields for investors.
• Potential Impact: 1. Attract traditional fixed-income investors seeking yields; 2. Increase long-term ETH locking demand; 3. Bring staking yields into mainstream consciousness, reinforcing ETH’s “digital bond” narrative.

If approved, this product’s significance exceeds that of another ETF launch. First, it provides U.S. mainstream investors a compliant channel to participate in ETH staking without dealing with complex private key management or technical procedures. Second, it could create a positive feedback loop: increased ETF demand -> trust purchases more ETH for staking -> network staking rate rises, circulating supply decreases -> ETH becomes more scarce, network security enhances. This model, tying financial product demand directly to protocol security, introduces a new fundamental factor into ETH valuation. Although regulatory approval timelines remain uncertain, BlackRock’s move injects strong market expectations, explaining the independent and vigorous performance of ETH during this rally.

Whales Quietly Accumulating: On-Chain Data Reveals Smart Money Movements

Price surges often show early signs on-chain. Before ETH’s sharp rise, data from the on-chain analytics platform Santiment already painted a picture of “smart money” quietly positioning. Over the past three weeks, addresses holding between 100 and 100,000 ETH have accumulated about 934,000 ETH, worth approximately $3.15 billion at current prices. In contrast, small addresses holding less than 0.1 ETH net sold 1,041 ETH last week.

This marked divergence—whales accumulating while retail addresses sell—serves as a strong bullish signal. It indicates that large investors with more information and research resources are buying the dip amid market pessimism. CryptoQuant’s additional data further confirms this: addresses holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH have reached all-time highs, and top whales holding over 100,000 ETH are also increasing their holdings. Such collective actions typically signal confidence in the medium- to long-term outlook.

Fund flow data offers another perspective. According to SoSoValue, spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $177 million on Tuesday, the largest since October 28. Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium index—reflecting U.S. investor sentiment—shifted from negative to positive after nearly a month, indicating demand from institutional U.S. investors is rebounding. The combined effort of on-chain whales and compliant institutional inflows is fueling this price breakout.

Technical Confirmation: Key Moving Averages Reclaimed, Historical Patterns Suggest 100x Gains?

From a chart perspective, this rally has achieved several key technical breakthroughs that support further strength. Most notably, ETH price has successfully reclaimed and is now above the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), a line many medium- to long-term traders see as a bull-bear dividing line. This breakout occurred after a 20% rebound from the critical support at $2,800, indicating unusual strength and significance.

Historical data offers an optimistic outlook for such a breakout. When ETH weekly closing prices above the 50-week EMA have occurred, they often preceded strong trending rallies. For example, from October 2023 to March 2024, ETH rose 147%; in Q3 2025, it gained 97%. Analyst CyrilXBT notes that the “50-week moving average has become a key support level,” and holding above it could greatly increase the probability of testing $4,000.

Another analyst, StockTrader_Max, sets more immediate targets: bulls need to turn the 200-day moving average (~$3,500) from resistance into support. Once achieved, the next goal would be the previous all-time high of $5,000. Additionally, ETH/BTC has shown clear bottoming and rebound signs after months of decline, with some forecasts suggesting substantial short-term gains against Bitcoin. These technical signals, resonating with positive fundamentals and capital flows, point to a bullish setup.

Altcoin Season? The Logic Behind Altcoin Investment During Ethereum’s Strength

Ethereum’s strength is never just about itself. In the crypto market, ETH is often viewed as a “temperature gauge” of market risk appetite and a “driver” of altcoin rallies. When ETH begins to significantly outperform Bitcoin, it typically signals increased risk-taking, with funds flowing out of “safer” Bitcoin into higher-potential altcoins. The strengthening ETH/BTC rate is a direct reflection of this process.

So, which types of altcoins might benefit from this ETH-led rally? First, Layer 2 projects closely tied to the Ethereum ecosystem are prime candidates. Fusaka’s upgrade, which aligned Layer 1 and Layer 2 fees, isn’t competition but rather ecosystem synergy. Lower fees and improved settlement layers will further stimulate Layer 2 application ecosystems, with related governance tokens or infrastructure tokens likely to benefit. Second, RWA tokenization and real-world asset projects—endorsed by regulators—are also poised to attract attention alongside ETH’s rise.

However, investors should remain cautious. Analysts note a divergence between institutional and retail sentiment. Whales’ accumulation and retail selling indicate ongoing perception gaps. For ETH’s rally to evolve into a broader “altcoin season,” more sustained capital inflows and increased overall market trading volume are needed. Currently, ETH’s fundamental improvements and new ETF narratives have opened upward potential, but the extent of future gains depends on macro liquidity and the launch of more flagship projects.

Overall, Ethereum’s recent strong performance is not a coincidence driven by a single factor but a confluence of positive factors: technological upgrades (Fusaka), product innovation (staking ETF), capital maneuvers (whale accumulation, ETF inflows), and macro narratives (RWA tokenization). It marks a shift in market focus from merely storing value as “digital gold” to a “digital economy” with complex economic models and yield-generating capabilities. While regulatory approvals remain uncertain, Ethereum is boldly reaffirming its position as the leading infrastructure of the crypto world, injecting new vitality and expectations into the entire altcoin market.