History always repeats itself in crypto, but every script is hidden in the details.
First, let's look at the timeline: October 2025, Bitcoin touches a new all-time high of $126,000. If we follow the pace of the previous two bull-bear cycles—from December 2017 to December 2018 it dropped 85%, and from November 2021 to November 2022 it dropped 77%—then around October 2026, we'll likely see the end of this bear market.
Many people are still debating "will it break $69,000?" To be honest, this question already has no suspense. The previous bull market peak of $69,000 will inevitably be pierced in this bear market, and it will become one of the strongest support levels for years to come. The logic is simple: in the past two cycles, the bear market lows were far below the previous bull market tops—2018 low of $3,000 versus 2017 high of $20,000; 2022 low of $15,500 versus 2021 high of $69,000. So this time will be the same. Coming down from $126,000, the $69,000 psychological level must break, and only after it breaks will real panic set in and chips fully exchange hands.
The key question is: how far will it fall?
By ratio, if the decline is between 65%-77%, the bottom range will likely fall between $30,000-$50,000. In the extreme case, if it drops 85% like in 2018, even below $20,000 is possible. But this time is different: Bitcoin's market dominance has returned to 60%, indicating that outside capital is still mainly entering through Bitcoin, and altcoins' blood-sucking effect is weakening. So the more realistic script is: drop to the $40,000-$50,000 range and start consolidating on declining volume, then wait until late 2026 to early 2027 when the fear index drops below 10—that's when the true "golden pit" arrives.
The impact on crypto needs to be analyzed separately.
If Bitcoin breaks below $69,000, the first wave of reaction will definitely be network-wide liquidations, with longs wiped out everywhere. But this isn't necessarily bad for the market—the cleaner the leverage is cleared, the more solid the foundation for the next bull market. And once $69,000 is broken and reclaimed, it will become the strongest support level in the next five years. Institutions will treat it as the benchmark for "digital gold" dollar-cost averaging.
Altcoins will suffer much more. Popular highlights of this cycle like SOL and HYPE will likely see declines exceeding Bitcoin, with 50% cuts at minimum, and even steeper cuts wouldn't be surprising. But this is also time to screen projects—those that survive the extreme environment of $30,000-$50,000 Bitcoin and are still building their ecosystem will be the true "bombs" next cycle.
At this stage, the strategy is actually simple: buy in batches below $60,000, add a bit every 10% drop, don't go all-in, and don't short. Time is on the side of dollar-cost averagers. By 2029, when Bitcoin touches $150,000-$250,000, looking back at today's panic will all be opportunity cost.
Finally, something real: in crypto all these years, those who've made real money are the ones who could hold steady during bear markets and dared to invest when despair set in. We're not at despair yet, so wait a bit longer. #加密市场上涨 #加密市场上涨 $BTC
