Key points to watch for BTC and ETH next week, prioritized:
Macro and Regulation: The Biggest Uncertainty Source
Around April 2nd - U.S. Tariff "Liberation Day" - The Trump administration will announce a new round of reciprocal tariff policies, which is the biggest macro suspense in the current market. The energy market has already become tense due to the Iran conflict and Ukraine strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities. If tariffs exceed expectations and inflation expectations rise, risk assets including BTC/ETH could face a new round of selling pressure.
April 28-29 FOMC (slightly further but requires early prediction of direction) - Next week’s data releases (industrial output, housing, and wholesale data) are leading indicators for market pricing of the Federal Reserve’s path. If the data remains hot, expectations for rate cuts will continue to be compressed, making short-term pressure on BTC hard to dissipate.
ETF Capital Flows: ETH Warning Signal is Stronger
ETH ETFs have been net outflows for 8 consecutive trading days, with weekly outflows exceeding $200 million this week, led mainly by BlackRock. BTC ETFs also broke the previous 4-week streak of net inflows this week, turning into outflows of about $296 million. If ETH ETF outflows do not reverse next week, ETH’s technical outlook will face increased pressure.
Technical Snapshot (as of today)
BTC ETH
Current Price Approximately 66,659 USDT Approximately 1,992 USDT
7-Day Change -5.98% -7.43%
Daily Trend Bearish alignment, but daily CCI/WR already in oversold zone Bearish death cross appears, also with oversold CCI/WR
Key Support Level 63,453 (major liquidation zone for longs) Relatively weaker than BTC
Both are in oversold zones on the daily chart, theoretically capable of a rebound, but the trend remains bearish. If BTC drops below 63,453, it will trigger approximately $876 million in forced liquidations of long positions, which warrants caution.
Institutional Movements: Two Sides
Bullish signals:
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) just added 1,031 BTC
Morgan Stanley announced the issuance of its own Bitcoin ETF at a record-low fee of 0.14%, further expanding institutional access
Coinbase partnered with Fannie Mae to launch BTC/USDC mortgage loans, expanding BTC financial infrastructure
Bearish pressures to watch:
Early ETH ICO investors continue to cash out (recent single sales of over 11,000 ETH)
Institutions like Bitmine are increasing ETH holdings, but ETF fund net outflows have not yet stopped
Overall, next week’s core focus for BTC is the market reaction after tariff policy implementation and whether ETF capital flows stabilize; ETH faces more direct pressure—continuous ETF outflows combined with weak technicals, with close attention to whether the $2000 level can hold. The Greed and Fear Index is currently at 9, in extreme fear territory. Short-term rebounds may occur at any time, but until the overall trend changes, maintaining a good safety margin in operations is crucial.
