#预测市场 Seeing the changes in Bitcoin forecast data on Polymarket, from 10% down to 8%, reminds me of a common misconception. Many people are easily confused by market predictions, especially these types of probability data. Seemingly precise numbers can create the illusion of "grasping the pulse of the market," but in reality, prediction markets fundamentally reflect participants' emotional betting, not certainty about the future. From the information available, the probability of Bitcoin reaching 100,000 has decreased, which may be due to market participants re-evaluating the year's end outlook. But I want to remind everyone—regardless of whether this probability is 8% or 80%, it doesn't change our investment logic. What is the prudent approach? Maintain clear and disciplined position management. Don't leverage up just because a prediction is upward, and don't rush to exit just because the data shifts. The essence of market volatility is the uncertainty in participants' perceptions, and what we can control are only our risk tolerance and asset allocation framework. In the long run, chasing short-term predictions often results in more loss than gain. Instead of obsessing over whether Bitcoin can rise again to 100,000, ask yourself: at the current price range, is this asset's proportion in my overall portfolio reasonable? Is there still room for risk tolerance? These are the real questions worth pondering. Market predictions are everywhere, but sticking to your own investment discipline is the most valuable.

#永续合约交易 Perpetual contracts are currently showing real profit potential, but they are also the most likely to get liquidated. The news reports that in the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced $195 million in liquidations. What does this number indicate—there are many market participants, but most are just losing money. BTC is now stuck between 90,000 and 90,500. If it can't break through, you should consider reversing your position. My suggestion is to wait for a pullback to 88,000-87,500 before considering a long position, with a stop loss at 87,000 and a target of 90,500. Once it breaks through 90,500, look towards the 91,600-92,000 range. But if it can't break through consistently, don't hesitate—going short might be the right move. ETH is similar; the head and shoulders pattern is visible, with 3,080 being a key level. A short-term pullback to 2,980-2,950 could be a good entry point for longs, with a stop loss at 2,920. But the main focus should be on whether it can hold above 3,080-3,100; otherwise, consider reversing your position. The most intense area is the altcoin contracts. I’ve long seen LIGHT as a typical exit scam, with a 4x rally followed by a quick dump—just like the head-chopping move around 4 a.m. domestic time. Although ICNT gave a strategy the day before yesterday that could have yielded 5x, I really don’t recommend gambling on these frustrating coins. Rapid surges are usually followed by dumps—this is standard practice. On-chain trading still offers opportunities, but the secondary market is full of traps. Instead of hunting for gains in altcoins, it’s safer to focus on swing opportunities in mainstream coins like BNB and SOL.