Trump ultimately made many moves that seemed like he didn't even know what he was saying, which got the market confused too. But don't actually mistake him for a fool—this type of person is typically a classic case of "great wisdom appears foolish."

It's more like what? Like a GTO playing style in Texas Hold'em. When it's time to bluff, you have to let people catch you a few times so the market believes your value bets are real afterward. Otherwise, nobody's calling your hand.

So the key has never been about what's said, but about how the money moves.

If war keeps going but oil prices keep tanking, it means the market doesn't actually take it seriously—the sentiment is fake.

Conversely, even if both sides keep shouting about ceasefires, but oil prices keep soaring, it's simple: the ceasefire is just talk for you to hear, reality is nothing like that.

Don't listen to stories when trading. Just watch the price.