Defioasis

No wonder Predict Fun's new addresses have been increasing so rapidly lately
It turns out they were holding back something big
Predict Fun has a total of 62,500 trading addresses
Probable has a total of 34,900 trading addresses
After the acquisition is completed, Predict Fun should soon surpass 100,000 unique trading addresses

Opinion The rate of decline in holdings is faster than expected, with a net outflow of $89.7 million over the past week.
To be objective, the decrease in holdings varies across different sectors, which may indicate where the "brush" (manipulation) is concentrated and what remains relatively sticky.
- The sector with the highest holdings, macro, has experienced the most collapse, dropping from nearly $70 million in holdings to just over $10 million.
- The sports sector's holdings decreased from $21 million to $5.6 million, a decline of over 70%.
- The crypto sector's decline is somewhat

Is it over? BSC Prediction Market Faces Major Blow
- Single-day trading volume drops nearly 60%: From March 1 to 2, daily trading volume decreased from over $94 million to $38.3 million, with Probable experiencing the largest decline, dropping from $58.8 million to $10.02 million
- Continuous large net outflows in open interest: Over the past 3 days, open interest has experienced consecutive large net outflows totaling over $94.6 million, with Opinion experiencing the largest net outflow of over $86.5 million. The overall open interest in the BSC prediction market has decreased to slightly abo

Predict Fun becomes the next target? 🧐
In the past week, the number of new transaction addresses for Predict Fun increased by over 15,000, maintaining an average daily increase of over 3,000 in the past three days.

On the day the US and Israel launched a joint strike against Iran, Polymarket's single-day trading volume hit a record high, with nominal trading volume reaching $478 million.
Among them, the political sector accounted for $220 million, also a record high, representing 46.2% of Polymarket's nominal trading volume on that day.
Additionally, Polymarket Builders also set a new single-day trading volume record at this historic moment.

Polymarket's 5min Up or Down market hits a new single-day record
Daily trading volume exceeds $26 million, including over $21 million in BTC, over $2.6 million in ETH, and over $1.1 million in SOL
Most impressively, the number of 5-minute daily trades has surpassed 2 million, making it the ultimate playground for high-frequency bots
The total number of 5-minute trading addresses has exceeded 120,000, with a recent daily average of 22,000 to 25,000 trading addresses; additionally, two addresses have already accumulated over $10 million in 5-minute trading volume

Hoping for world peace. Today, the wallet is leaking, and I am patiently waiting to break even this weekend🫥
Next week, the Perp DEX on-chain gold and silver is expected to usher in another wave of trading volume高潮

Opinion The accumulated trading volume has exceeded $11 billion (cumulative nominal trading volume over $22 billion).
Currently, the events can be divided into 11 major categories: Crypto, Macro, Sports, Business, Pre-TGE, Culture, Politics, Technology, NBA, Esports, and More.
In terms of trading volume by category, Crypto, Macro, Sports, Business, and Pre-TGE have all surpassed $1 billion, while the Culture category is also approaching the $900 million to $1 billion mark.
Regarding independent traders by category, Crypto and Macro have both exceeded 100,000 traders, and 8 categories hav

Comparing the daily Volume / OI ratio curves of the three major BSC prediction markets together provides a clearer view of the market's speculative level.
Probable recently reached a Vol/OI ratio of 2,300%, which is not only high in absolute terms but also exhibits significant daily fluctuations.
Placing Opinion, Predict Fun, and Probable on the same chart, the first two are almost overshadowed, with Probable's market turnover or speculative intensity clearly exceeding the other two.
Initially, Opinion and Predict Fun experienced brief periods of high Volume / OI ratios on certain days,

Using Polymarket as a benchmark, the real-time Vol/OI ratios for prediction markets from lowest to highest are:
- Polymarket: 29.73%
- Opinion: 29.95%
- Kalshi: 32.54%
- Myriad: 57.69%
- Predict Fun: 69.67%
- Limitless: 926.81%
- Probable: 2,305.17%

Opinion Cumulative capture fees have exceeded $16.6 million, and strong cash flow will be one of TGE's biggest confidence boosters.
Looking at the distribution of cumulative fees, the Crypto sector contributed over a quarter, reaching $4.4 million; followed by Pre-TGE, macro, sports, and business sectors, each exceeding $2 million.
After nearly four months of development, the daily fee capture sector structure has undergone significant changes, which may be one of the signs of Opinion moving towards maturity.
In the initial growth phase, the Crypto sector once contributed over 90% of daily fee

Based on the USDT balance of the agent trading address, it can be inferred that the current potential total liquidity of the BSC prediction market is approximately $35 million, which is a sharp decline from the peak of over $74 million on December 26.
Opinion still has the best liquidity, accounting for about 65% of the BSC prediction market liquidity, but it is in a continuous downward trend. The reasons may include being diverted by other competitors and the withdrawal of some funds.
Probable, although it has surpassed Opinion in daily trading volume and number of trades, from a liquidity pe

Different prediction markets have slightly different rulings on ZachXBT's announcement of insider trading companies, which may also lead to varying boundaries of controversy.
Polymarket's ruling emphasizes a direct mention and clear connection to insider trading.
① The company is directly named by ZachXBT
② It is related to insider trading
③ If multiple companies are named by ZachXBT, the one with the clearest insider trading allegations is selected.
Predict Fun's ruling focuses on the Primary Business Targeted, that is, whether the company is the main subject of ZachXBT's investigat

Based on pre-market futures, Opinion's valuation is estimated to be between $500 million and $800 million, with Polymarket, Predict Fun, and others raising their $500m forecast probability for Opinion TGE's first-day valuation back to 60%.
However, one less favorable data point is that Opinion's market share of daily trading volume in the BSC prediction market has fallen below 25% for the first time.
On February 22, the BSC prediction market's trading volume reached approximately $120 million, with the following distribution:
- Probable accounting for 59.4%, totaling $71 million
- Opi

Polymarket Builders weekly trading volume reached $125 million, surpassing $100 million for three consecutive weeks; weekly trading addresses also continue to grow rapidly, exceeding 10,000 for two consecutive weeks.
In terms of cumulative trading volume, betmoar remains the leader with over $550 million, accounting for 50.6% of the market share; other platforms with cumulative trading volume exceeding $50 million include PolyTraderPro, PolyCop, Stand, Polymtrade, and Preddy trade.
Regarding cumulative trading addresses, Polymtrade became the first builder to surpass 10,000 traders and is also

Back from vacation? The BSC prediction market's nominal trading volume has returned above $200 million after a week and a half, with both Probable and Opinion exceeding $100 million.
In terms of market share of nominal trading volume:
Probable - 42.9%
Opinion - 41.6%
Predict Fun - 15.5%
Interestingly, the market with the highest trading volume for Probable on that day was “Will the Opinion FDV be above $30 billion within one day of release?”, accounting for nearly 20% of the trading volume.

Polymarket's Crypto Up or Down 5min markets have expanded from BTC to ETH, SOL, and XRP, fully aligning with the 15min markets.
During a full trading day, the 5min markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP have traded over $20 million, with BTC exceeding $18 million and ETH over $1.5 million.
The 15min markets may face further fragmentation, with daily trading volume currently slightly above $10 million.