*Last few weeks, we've seen mentions of record flows out of U.S and in to international stocks. Along with it, a lot of Fintwit was also talking about international outperformance. Just another example of a perfect sentiment peak. International was actually outperforming for almost an exact year, but people only started talking about it when the relative performance started going parabolic. Chart below is $EMXC (emerging markets excluding China) divided by $SPY S&P500. Now $EMXC and other international ETFs are falling off a cliff. *I'm still bullish (international over U.S) on a multi year ba
Digital Asset Treasury companies (DATs) doing really well now (MSTR, MTPLF, MARA, UPXI, DFDV, PURR, SBET, BMNR). I'm guessing a lot of people have shifted from DATs to AI miners in recent months. Wouldn't be my choice.
All of the below fears in the last 4 months. Now look at the chart of the S&P500 (basically flat). U.S. government 43-day shutdown AI destroying software AI destroying jobs $NVDA is "holding up" the market Quantum (bitcoin) Jane Street (bitcoin) Michael Burry $PLTR FUD Citrini report Tariffs (again) WW3 with Iran Private credit sector uncertainties World Uncertainty Index record levels Silver dropping like an altcoin -37% in a day The 1460 day cycle (bitcoin) Midterm years are weak
Post something about $IREN - go viral. Post something about a small cap, doing something similar with potential for 10-20x, crickets. It was a bargain at $5. It will still go up from $43... but it's not going to be the one doing crazy numbers like last year (1500% in 6 months). Where were all these influencers last year? No where. Now they are all jumping on the crowd favourite.
Don't make the mistake of believing every aspect of a bear market has to repeat 2022, when the bull market was not an exact replica of 2021. Recency bias is an easy choice, but the market always evolves and incorporates new tricks for participants to deal with.
By the time people realise that big money has shifted from Long AI miners / Short DATs and pureplays to Short AI miners / Long DATs and pureplays They will be buying the next top