Sykodelicc
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Just because the FED have announced they are turning the liquidity tap back on...
Does not mean the price will skyrocket back to $100m in one candle.
If you have not realised yet that this market is manipulated both down, and up, depending on leverage...
Where have you been?
What has happened today is massively overall bullish for the next 3 - 12 months.
But the next 3 - 12 days you cant bet there will be max fuckery when it comes to price action.
The problem most people have is that they see bullish news, feel bullish, and enter a leveraged long because "price must go up now"...
And so many
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It is so funny watching all the bears parrot the same thing..
“It’s not QE it’s actually reserve system management” blah blah…
They’re shook and they’re in denial.
Here is what you have to understand.
The FED has not simply completed years of 3 years of tightening, to the start expanding for 3 months.
What has happened today is the start of a new FED liquidity cycle and it will only accelerate from here.
They cannot not do this - it is inevitable.
And it is absolute insanity betting on a bitcoin bear market to $40k in a liquidity expanding environment.
Crypto is a vessel of liquidity, and
BTC-2.13%
ETH-4.48%
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This is the manipulation in Crypto on show today.
After probably that most dovish FED meeting in years.
Equities - Green dildo
Gold - Green dildo
Bitcoin - Down
This is because the exchanges will always flush longs on good news.
Good news comes = longs pile in = exchanges hunt them.
Then they bait the shorts, and rekt them too.
Only to end up sending it higher in the end, only after they have fucked both sides.
But it does not matter what happens over the new few days, the foundational framework of expansive monetary policy is underway.
All the signs are there, and all the charts I've been sha
BTC-2.13%
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This is the only post you need to read about QE or not.
There is a lot of confusion on the timeline right now.
But it is very simple.
This is not QE.
BUT it is monetary expansion via Treasury purchases.
It does not matter if it is called QE or not, it is expanding the supply of money.
What is more important is what it signals, not what it is.
What it signals is that they have begun to print money again, because they have no choice.
And the money printer once turned on, stays on for a while.
They will try to downplay it, call it something else... but it is money printing.
And with a $2tn fiscal
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Absolute god candle from $RUT.
Risk on.
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Powell: “It looks like the baseline would be solid growth next year”
I mean this is not a hawkish FED at all.
Rate cuts, T-Bill purchases, and higher growth expectations.
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve to buy $40 billion worth of treasury bills over the next 30 days.
And so it begins...
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THE FEDERAL RESERVE DROP RATES BY 0.25%
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The bullish signals just keep piling up for $ETH.
It is going to be a volatile day with FOMC happening any minute now...
But $ETH has broken above the 1D 50SMA and the Daily supertrend has flashed a buy signal reversal for the first time $2,500 back in July.
ETH/BTC + ETH.D looking very strong
BTC.D looking weak
We will need to wait for the daily close for full confirmation of this, but the signs have been building for $ETH for a while now and we're seeing the strength come through.
Looking v good.
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This is one of the most important things you need to understand about this cycle.
Everyone is looking for clues in the wrong place.
You cannot just look at Bitcoin pice action and make an overall decision about the cycle.
There are far greater foundational moves at play that dictate what happens.
And one of the clearest ones is the way the $RUT is currently moving.
The $RUT is the index for small cap stocks. Just like how we have OTHERS for alts.
And the $RUT is a key risk on metric as this index really only moves in the most risk on positions in the market as it is the highest risk stock inde
BTC-2.13%
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I don't know who needs to hear this but...
They will lower the rates
They will print the money
They will destroy the dollar
They literally have zero choice.
They have to bring the rates down, they have to service the debt, they have to keep the USA solvent.
Trump has made it painfully clear what he is going to do, and the new FED chair takes place in May.
What do you think is going to happen?
That they will unleash the mother of all stimulus and Bitcoin will drop to $30k?
The Trump FED is being totally underpriced by the market at the moment because no one actually understands how cycles work.
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I don’t think there has ever been a greater divide between fundamentals and sentiment.
In the last week we have had:
- $11tn Vangaurd open up ETFs
- Sovereign wealth funds buying billions
- BofA recommending 1% - 4% BTC allo
- Saylor buying $1bn and shilling in Dubai
- SEC chair everything onchain in 2 years
- BTC, ETH and USDC now allowed to be used for capital for derivatives in the US
And all of this is happening after BTC’s most severe drop ever, just as we are about to begin liquidity expansion again.
And you have the average crypto bro expecting a year long bear market down to $30k.
BTC-2.13%
ETH-4.48%
USDC-0.01%
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Whatever way you look at $ETH...
It looks insanely bullish.
Ok, one more post, then im done, i promise 😉
So we have:
- ETH/BTC breaking higher
- TOTAL3/BTC trending up
- ETH.D breaking higher
And we can see now that on the 1D timeframe OBV has also broken out, alongside price.
The last time this happened after a significant drawdown, it led to significant upside.
In hindsight it is going to be obvious.
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This bottom is really starting to fully form on Bitcoin.
OBV continues to show strength.
You can see the OBV chart is a lot cleaner than the price. It is both holding and moving stronger than the price...
Which shows us the buying is far stronger than the selling.
Strong close above $94k and I think we can be confident that the low is in.
However, this week has the makings of a very volatile one, with maybe a few surprises, so let's see how we go from here.
BTC-2.13%
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$ETH is absolute primed no matter what way you try to look at it.
To finish off my overall $ETH and alt analysis today...
We have ETH Dominance about to close it's first day back above the 50SMA since September, after already breaking the downtrend.
The last two times it did this it rallied very hard.
RSI is also ready for the highs.
The time to be bearish on $ETH and alts has passed.
ETH-4.48%
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It could not be clearer to me that the cycle is not over.
Everywhere I look, every chart I compare, they all tell the same story.
That we are at the late stage of the cycle, where BTC finishes its final leg, and the rotation to $ETH and alts happens.
We have TOTAL3/BTC on the top and we can see that it currently looks exactly the same as it did just before alts became dominant last cycle, with the exact same consolidation time of 1,099 days.
And ETH/BTC below again to add more confluence to this.
Lastly, this is all shaping up at the same time as we have begun to transition to easing liquidity
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ETH-4.48%
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It could be clearer to me that the cycle is not over.
Everywhere I look, every chart I compare, they all tell the same story.
That we are at the late stage of the cycle, where BTC finishes its final leg, and the rotation to $ETH and alts happens.
We have TOTAL3/BTC on the top and we can see that it currently looks exactly the same as it did just before alts became dominant last cycle, with the exact same consolidation time of 1,099 days.
And ETH/BTC below again to add more confluence to this.
Lastly, this is all shaping up at the same time as we have begun to transition to easing liquidity.
Th
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ETH-4.48%
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$ETH is looking very strong here.
ETH/BTC, as I said a few days ago, is the most bullish and clean looking chart around.
And when we chart it against BTC.D, it becomes very clear what stage of the cycle we are in.
This is why I simply cannot understand the bears here.
I want someone, anyone who is macro bearish, to come on this post and tell me why this is bearish for the market?
ETH/BTC being bullish is still bullish for Bitcoin anyway. $ETH only truly outperforms at BTC takes it last and explosive leg to the upside.
This chart does not mean BTC doesn't go higher... it just means $ETH moves
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I think its most likely we drop heading into FOMC.
And that would be the best outcome imo.
More and more signals area adding up that the actual low is already in.
And at this FOMC I am very confident we will get some new info regarding balance sheet expansion and forward guidance.
It will be very big if we do.
This weekend price action has just been a shit load of leverage traders getting wiped on every direction change.
But Coinbase premium has stayed positive and OI dropping constantly.
Good signs all around.
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$ETH has reset itself very nicely.
Each time we have had the 5D MACD start to roll up like this after a full reset alongside the RSI, it has led to significant upside.
The only outlier to this is 2022.
But there are key differences to take into consideration.
In 2022 we were entering a massive liquidity tightening cycle. Right now we are entering expansion.
Also, $ETH put its lowest level RSI back at $1,350 which is equivalent of a bear market bottom.
It is impossible to know if the bottom is in here or not, but the signs are adding up that the bottom formation is well under way imo.
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