RexLiu

Age 2.1 Yıl

Peak Tier 6

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RexLiu

2h ago

The biggest upgrade in my investing was a shorter filter.
After LUNA, FTX, missing the BTC ETF move, and years where my crypto book fell more than 50% from the peak, I cut the questions down to three:
- Did it survive a bear market?
- Is the upside worth benchmarking against $BTC?
- Can I still sleep with this size on?
More positions never made me safer.
Better filters did.

LUNA0,95%

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RexLiu

03-08 01:14

NFP: -92K jobs. Expected: +50K.
The old playbook said bad economic data means rate cuts, and rate cuts mean BTC moons.
$BTC went $74k → $68K → $65K.
The "bad is good" trade just failed its loudest test this cycle.
CPI drops Tuesday then.
🗳️ What happens next?

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RexLiu

03-06 01:29

The textbook correlation: dollar up, Bitcoin down.
This week, both stayed elevated.
- BTC at $70,821 (as of Mar 6, 01:00 UTC)
- DXY pushing toward 100
- Coinbase Premium at its highest since December — US institutions buying into dollar strength, not against it.
Nine years watching BTC move with tech stocks, gold, risk-on sentiment. Correlated to everything.
The moments it decorrelates are the moments that define the next regime.

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RexLiu

03-05 01:28

Three Cardano catalysts are converging before summer:
- Hard fork + Plutus smart contract upgrade this month
- @MidnightNtwrk mainnet late March (MoneyGram + Google Cloud as node operators)
- ADA spot ETF: Bloomberg pegs approval probability at 70%, window around August 2026
Meanwhile, my crypto allocation just sits silently from last October.
Everyone says "patience is the edge."
Turns out patience without repositioning is just watching.

ADA0,03%

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RexLiu

03-04 08:57

I used to measure my days by PnL.
Now I measure them by firsts.
- My daughter’s first time taking a new bus route in a new city.
- Her first friend in a kindergarten we might leave in weeks.
- Her first “Dad, let’s go to the library,” instead of “Dad, are you still working?”
None of these moments show up on a dashboard.
But they compound harder than most assets I’ve ever owned.
Markets taught me how to survive volatility.
Fatherhood taught me what deserves volatility.
You can recover from a bad quarter. You can’t recover a missed childhood season.
I still care about returns.
I just don’t confu

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RexLiu

03-04 01:14

In January 2024, I sold all my BTC at $40K the day the ETF got approved.
Two months later, I bought it back at $60K.
Same thesis. Different conviction. 50% more expensive.
I thought I was being smart — "sell the news, buy the dip." But the dip never came. By the time I re-entered, the market had already priced in everything I was waiting for.
Two years later, I still catch myself wanting to "do something" during volatility at times.
The hardest skill in investing is learning that doing nothing is the highest-conviction trade you can make.
That's why I'm laser-focused on everything

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RexLiu

03-03 08:59

My AI content agent wrote "8%+ stablecoin yields on Minswap and Spectrum" in a draft about Cardano DeFi growth.
Those numbers didn't exist anywhere in our data. The agent saw a narrative about Cardano stablecoins and filled in yield figures that sounded plausible.
Where narrative meets data gaps, AI fills in confident fiction. Your fact-check instinct isn't optional — it's the product.

ADA0,03%

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RexLiu

03-03 01:10

Built a narrative radar last week. It scans 65 RSS sources, then cross-references with my Alpha Radar signals.
The rule is simple: one source talking about something is noise. Two independent sources confirming the same narrative is a signal worth investigating.
First run took under a minute.
ADA showed up in both feeds — 112 mentions across sources in 7 days. Stablecoins, AI agents, RWA all cross-validated too.
Built with Python, runs on a daily cron via OpenClaw. Idea to working tool: about an hour.
The best research system isn't reading more. It's filtering faster.

ADA0,03%

RWA0,45%

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AYATTAC

LFG 🔥

RexLiu

03-01 02:39

CZ, Circle's CEO, Peter Diamandis — all saying the same thing: AI agents will use crypto as their native currency.
Billions of agents. Millions of transactions. No bank accounts, no KYC.
I run multiple AI agents daily. They already cost real money when they make mistakes — wrong API calls, wasted compute, fabricated data.
Scale that to autonomous onchain trading. Who pays when an AI agent loses $50K?

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RexLiu

03-01 02:06

My AI finance agent delivered a complete February expense report on January 31st.
Income, expenses, categories, breakdowns, totals — all there.
One problem: February hadn't happened yet.
Caught it in 3 seconds.
AI won't say "I don't know."
It sometimes fills gaps with confident fiction that looks exactly like real data.
Your boring, lived-in knowledge of your own numbers is the last firewall.

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RexLiu

02-27 02:13

3 months of nomad life with a family of three. Here's what I wish someone told me before we left:
- Your kid will adapt faster than you. By Nanning, my daughter made friends before we'd unpacked. Stop worrying about them — they're fine.
- Find local apartments in community advertisements or Lianjia. Negotiate and stay for a few days before the whole month. It will cut your cost by around 1/3.
- Community canteens are the cheat code. ¥15/meal, local flavors, and your kid eats better than at restaurants. Look for the one closest to a school.
- The city library is a free coworking space with

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RexLiu

02-26 13:08

My daughter asked me why I'm always on the computer in the past month.
I didn't have a convincing answer yet.
For weeks, I was deep in infrastructure nobody could see. Configuring networks, routing models, debugging systems that produced few visible output with OpenClaw.
I wondered if it was worth it and some doubted as well.
Then a few days ago, I woke up and everything had already run — research filed, drafts written, data organized.
The system I built in silence started working on its own.
That's the thing about infrastructure:
It looks like wasted effort until it doesn't. And when it cli

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RexLiu

02-26 09:03

Most portfolios don’t fail from bad ideas.
They fail from bad structure.
@nntaleb's Barbell Strategy hits in the uncertainties:
- 90% in survival assets (cash flow, stable yield, long runway)
- 10% split across many tiny asymmetric bets (AI, crypto, early experiments)
If a small bet dies, I lose little. If one hits, upside is nonlinear.
I learned this after sharp drawdowns in 2018 and 2022. Not because my thesis was wrong — because my sizing was fragile.
My biggest shift:
- I stopped optimizing for being right.
- I started optimizing for survival + optionality.
Rules I follow now:
-

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RexLiu

02-26 02:18

Cathie Wood just told Bloomberg: Bitcoin is "hands down" better than gold.
Half of CT is celebrating. The other half is dismissing her.
Here's the thing — adults don't judge people. They judge actions.
It doesn't matter if you love or hate Cathie. What matters is whether the thesis is playing out.
The signals:
- US Treasury testifying on acquiring BTC without touching the budget
- BTC dipped to $65K on hawkish FOMC minutes — then bounced right back
- ARK still projecting $1.5M BTC by 2030
Stop asking "who said it." Start asking "is it happening."
Buy the expectation. Sell the fact.

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RexLiu

02-25 01:26

CME listed ADA futures. SEC opened a 75-day fast track. But we are still in "Cardano is dead" cycle with ADA at $0.27.
Years in crypto taught me one thing: the best entries happen when nobody's paying attention.
But I'm not rushing in. Two signals I need first:
- CME open interest trending up week over week
- $0.25 holding as support
No confirmation, no action.
Being early without a framework is just being wrong with extra steps.
The catalyst is real.
The timing is what matters.

ADA0,03%

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RexLiu

02-24 07:18

Day 1 of Agent Autonomy.
Woke up. Checked the log. Work was already done.
I went from giving commands to approving proposals.
That shift — from boss to owner — changes everything.
Building in public feels different when your team doesn't sleep.

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RexLiu

02-22 14:47

Nine hours on the high-speed rail to Chengdu.
My daughter was bored. I handed her my phone and said: "Tell Claude a story."
She spoke one sentence. One. "A rabbit who wants to go to the moon."
Opus 4.6 built the rest. Characters, plot twists, illustrations. A complete interactive picture book. She didn't just read it—she watched her idea become real.
Then she asked about our Xinjiang trip in two months. Claude mapped the route, kid-friendly stops, timing. Better than any travel agent I've used.
Here's what clicked: she wasn't consuming content. She was learning to create with a multiplier.
Sta