MatthewDixon

#LTC Bear Flag.
No Divergence
Mid range RSI
Logically we should head lower from here but as always, no certainty so we must ALWAYS manage risk

There are certainly other valid options for #BTC
But either way, if we dip to $BTC 52k area then I believe that buying may provide some upside opportunity (even if this is just a larger A wave down of a bigger correction

Bullish #BTC #Crypto catalysts:
Rate cuts / liquidity expansion
ETF inflows accelerating again
Regulatory clarity (US, EU)
Continued institutional launches
Bearish Risks:
Macro deterioration / recession signals
Geopolitical escalation (oil, Iran conflict)
Regulatory setbacks
Loss of $65K BTC support
Current accumulation + compression
Dont chase highs
Buy dips / accumulate
Wait for breakout confirmation
Big picture:
2026 = “grind phase” before next expansion imo
Bottom Line
Short-term: Neutral / choppy
Mid-term: Bullish bias
Long-term: Strongly BULLISH on completion of current corrective phase

Brace for the next leg down on #LTC
But rest assured, the next decline should be the last before we get a serious $LTC rally
Bearish short term
Very Bullish medium term 🚀

Getting EXCITED about the prospect of a POWERFUL #BTC rebound to new ATH
One more leg down IMO before UP.
This tells me that the #Iran conflict will soon be over and Peace will follow ushering a timely bounce for $BTC #Crypto and risk assets 😃

Im trading actively, taken profit on short #BTC and awaiting modest recovery to re-enter short.
Downside has some way to go imo.

Downside not yet over for #BTC #Crypto & Risk assets in general.
The recovery from the low has been corrective (abc) and so we should have at least one more impulsive move down.
Im just trading one wave at a time while #Geopolitical tensions persist, stoking #Inflation worries

Looking ahead to the next #FED meeting there is no chance priced at all for a cut in rates. In fact there is even a small chance of a raise in rates, although the odds are 95.9% in favour of yet another hold. This is partly due to high #OIL prices feeding #Inflation pressure which is damaging to #BTC #Crypto & risk assets

From today’s #FED projections & statement:
Rates: held steady
Cuts: only ~1 cut in 2026
#Inflation: higher 2.7%
Slightly hawkish / restrictive.
$BTC reaction (already happening)
Initial move: small bounce after decision
Real direction decided during Powell Q&A
What matters RIGHT NOW (during Q&A)
Markets are listening for 3 things:
Inflation framing
#Oil / persistent inflation is hawkish
temporary manageable is dovish tilt
If he signals:
Cuts uncertain thats risk-off
Cuts still likely then risk-on
Weak growth + high inflation = worst case for #BTC

#FED held #InterestRates as expected.
Lets see what the Q&A session draws regarding future expectations which could impact #BTC #Crypto & Risk Assets in general

#BTC & #Crypto took a hit today as #PPI came in much higher than expected 0.7% MOM against 0.3% expected.
This means that the FED will have much less room to cut interest rates in coming months as PPI often leads CPI and this is a sign that higher #Inflation is coming which is bad for risk assets.

The rate decision tonight is NOT the volatility driver
Markets are pricing 99% probability of NO CHANGE
Fed likely holds at 3.5%–3.75%
The rate decision is fully priced in so low surprise risk
The REAL volatility catalyst is @Powell’s tone (hawkish vs dovish)
Markets will react to:
#Inflation concerns (especially #oil spike)
Labor market weakness
Timing of rate cuts
Right now:
Oil shock + inflation risk = hawkish bias
Weak jobs data = dovish counterweight
Result: uncertainty = volatility
Economic projections (DOT PLOT)
This is huge tonight.
Watch for fewer rate cuts in 2026 i.e. hawkish shock

The rate decision tonight is NOT the volatility driver
Markets are pricing 99% probability of NO CHANGE
Fed likely holds at 3.5%–3.75%
The rate decision is fully priced in so low surprise risk
The REAL volatility catalyst is @Powell’s tone (hawkish vs dovish)
Markets will react to:
#Inflation concerns (especially #oil spike)
Labor market weakness
Timing of rate cuts
Right now:
Oil shock + inflation risk = hawkish bias
Weak jobs data = dovish counterweight
👉 Result: uncertainty = volatility
Economic projections (DOT PLOT)
This is huge tonight.
Watch for fewer rate cuts in 2026 i.e. hawkish sho

Clearly #BTC did breach the recent local high but still not reached the 100% extension of the A wave.
As such, I believe that there will still be substantial resistance to moving higher and it is more likely we see another substantial dip in price.
Interest Rates due Wednesday!

#LTC appears to be continuing a multi-week Bear Flag consolidation, awaiting the next move down.
Hopefully the next wave down will be the termination of the current correction and will open the way for a serious move higher.
The Iran war is unlikely to drag on much longer (despite the pessimists predictions) Market should then breath a sigh of relief

Hidden Bullish Divergence points to higher for #OIL
This would likely correlate with lower #BTC & #Crypto

6 days until the next rate decision.
Yet another HOLD on the cards.
Dont expect any fireworks here

On the other hand we really could go a little higher before the next #BTC & #Crypto down move - further cementing my decision to stand aside for now.
Will just enjoy the quietness for a day 😃