MarsBitNews

Headline: Polymarket Settlement Disputes Intensify, Ethereum Technical Roadmap Under Scrutiny—What Are Crypto Circles Overseas Talking About Today?
Author: Rhythm BlockBeats
Source:
Repost: Mars Finance
In the past 24 hours, mainstream crypto discussions have focused on Polymarket's settlement disputes and potential insider risks related to geopolitical events; regarding ecosystem development, concerns have been raised about Solana's network health and MEV behaviors, while disagreements over Ethereum's roadmap continue to ferment. The Perp DEX sector is accelerating differentiation through buyback mechanisms and market-making compression.
1. Mainstream Topics
1. Polymarket Settlement Dispute Over Venezuela "Invasion" Market
On January 3rd, the United States launched military action against Venezuela, successfully arresting President Maduro and his wife and handing them over for trial in the U.S. Trump administration's actions

Mars Finance News: Gemini Institutional Business Director Patrick Liou releases five major predictions for 2026.
1. The four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead; ETF and institutional adoption are making the market more mature, with volatility decreasing from a historical 80% to 25-40%, and drawdowns only 30% instead of the past 75-90%.
2. Crypto will become a bipartisan issue in the 2026 US midterm elections, with the CLARITY Act expected to make breakthroughs.
3. The crypto prediction market will expand on a large scale, with Polymarket's growth attracting players like Coinbase.
4. Digital asset custody companies will merge to survive; MicroStrategy in Q4 last year

AppWorks completes fundraising for the fourth flagship fund with a scale of $165 million, bringing the total fundraising to $386 million. The new fund will invest in early-stage projects, with a focus on AI and Web3, as well as entrepreneurial opportunities in emerging markets in Asia.

Matrixport analyzes Bitcoin ETF capital inflow, expecting a net inflow of $34 billion in 2024 and an additional $22 billion in 2025. Although there was a brief slowdown, overall capital movement still supports Bitcoin prices, potentially preparing for larger-scale capital inflows in 2026.

Chinese authorities are currently reviewing Meta's $2 billion acquisition of artificial intelligence platform Manus, assessing whether it violates technology export controls, with particular attention to whether the Manus team's technological development requires export licensing. This deal may face intervention or termination risks.

火星财经消息，1 月 7 日，据 Lookonchain 监测，某新建地址于 14 小时前「114514」最高点时花费 25 万 USDT 买入 854 万枚「114514」代币。 今日币价崩盘后，这些代币现在仅价值 3.438 万美元，导致损失高达 21.56 万美元（-86%）。

The recent market rebound allowed a whale to successfully break even, with a total long position market value of $825 million, using 3.2x leverage. The whale was originally floating at a loss of $74 million, and currently has a floating profit of $26.82 million in long positions, with rebound gains exceeding $100 million.

null
Author: Yuan Shan Dong Jian
Data sources: Farside Investors, SoSoValue, Federal Reserve H.4.1 Report, CryptoQuant
On the first trading day of 2026, BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $471 million in a single day.
What does this number mean?
In November and December, the total net outflow of spot BTC ETFs was approximately $4.57 billion; among them, December alone had a net outflow of about $1.09 billion.
Many people were frantically cutting losses above 93K, while institutions bought back about one-tenth in just one day on January 2.
At the same time, the following also occurred:
- The Federal Reserve's balance sheet increased by approximately $59.4 billion week-over-week (WALCL: as of 12/31, it was $6.6406 trillion, an increase of about $59.4 billion from 12/24)
- New giant whale holdings surpassed 100,000 BTC ($12 billion)

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission fined Sanford Financial (Hong Kong) Limited 4 million HKD for distributing unapproved virtual asset products on its online trading platform and failing to assess clients' investment knowledge, violating relevant guidelines.

火星财经消息，据 CoinDesk 报道，沃尔玛通过其 OnePay 应用程序推出比特币和以太坊交易服务，使数百万购物者能够将加密货币兑换用于日常零售消费。

Mars Finance reports that, according to Coinglass data, if Ethereum breaks above $3300, the liquidation of mainstream CEX short positions will reach $809 million; if it falls below $3150, long position liquidations will reach $1.053 billion. The liquidation chart reflects the liquidation intensity at different price ranges; the taller the bar, the greater the potential impact.