MARKET TALK

RETURNS OF INVESTMENT VEHICLES IN THE LAST 50 YEARS IN USD:
When we focus on (USD) returns, the ranking becomes clearer because it is stripped of local inflation effects. Considering the last 50 years from (1976-2026), the most profitable assets in dollar terms are as follows:
1. Bitcoin (USD Return: Astronomical)
Introduced in 2009, Bitcoin is by far the highest-yielding asset when viewed in dollar terms. Its price was well below 1 dollar in its early years, but today it is expressed in tens of thousands of dollars, achieving a dollar-based return of hundreds of thousands of times.
• Position in the ranking: Clear leader (but only for the last 17 years).
2. Land (Turkey - USD Return: Very High)
Land in Turkey, especially in cities like Istanbul, Bursa, Izmir, and Antalya, has shown incredible performance even in dollar terms. When comparing the dollar equivalents of land plots from the late 1970s to their current values, there is often a "rental increase" that surpasses US stock markets.
3. US Stock Markets (e.g., S&P 500 & Nasdaq)
US stock markets have provided an average annual compound return of about 10-12% in dollar terms over the last 50 years (CAGR). Reinvesting dividends could have increased this return to approximately 120-150 times the principal in dollar terms over 50 years.
• Emphasis: The power of stability and compound returns is at play here.
4. Istanbul Stock Exchange (USD Return: Volatile but Strong)
The Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST 100) shows quite "volatile" behavior when examined in dollar terms. The index has generally fluctuated between $1.5 and $5 in dollar terms. However, with proper sector and company selection (such as dividend-paying industrial companies), dollar returns can approach those of US stocks. Overall, the index is in the same league as gold in dollar terms.
5. Gold (USD Return)
In 1976, the ounce gold price was around $130. Today (2026), it has far exceeded that price. Gold has preserved its value against US inflation (US inflation) and added real value. However, it is not a "growth" asset but a "protection" asset.
6. Housing (Turkey - USD Return)
Housing in Turkey generally preserves its cost and value in dollar terms. But after deducting depreciation (wear and tear) and maintenance costs, the net dollar return lags behind land or stocks. Still, rental income added to dollar returns can challenge gold.
7. Silver (USD Return)
Silver has been weaker than gold in dollar terms over the last 50 years. Although it experienced speculative peaks (such as in early 1980 and 2011), in the long-term dollar-based return ranking, it usually ranks at the bottom.
Summary: Dollar-Based Return Ranking
1. #Bitcoin (All-time high in 17 years)
2. #Land (Turkey) (Regionally multiplying dollar value)
3. US Stocks (#SPX500) (Consistent and high compound returns)
4. #Istanbul Stock Exchange (Strong dollar returns depending on stock selection)
5. #Gold (Secure returns above US inflation)
6. #Housing (Turkey) (Stable dollar returns including rent)
7. #Silver (Lowest dollar-based real increase)
Note:
If you had $1,000 in 1976 and invested it in Land or the S&P 500, today you would have reached the greatest wealth, covering the years when Bitcoin did not exist.
Gold would have only preserved your purchasing power.
Those who sold gold to invest in housing just got tired.
Bitcoin will not show past performance.
Overall, regular purchases rather than chasing opportunities in land or stocks tend to be more profitable.