Several people noticed that the log-periodic model doesn't catch the current drawdown. I asked if a 6th peak could explain it. But it doesn't.

The 5-peak damped model predicts the current price at ~$156k — the actual is ~$71k, a gap of 0.28 dex.
Adding the 6th component (ω ≈ 5.15, corresponding to a longer sub-harmonic cycle with λ ≈ 3.4) improves the overall R² marginally from 0.751 to 0.797, but at the current moment it makes the prediction worse, not better — it actually pushes the model to predict ~$175k.
Two possible interpretations, none of which require adding parameters:
1) Pure noise. The model's unexplained residual has σ ≈ 0.15 dex. A drop of −0.28 dex is about 1.9σ — large but not extraordinary. It is within the range of fluctuations the model has seen before (2019 correction, mid-2022 collapse).
2) Macro shock. The current drawdown coincides with a broad risk-off move in global markets (tariff uncertainty, equity selloff). External shocks of this type are not in the model by construction — the log-periodic structure captures endogenous cycle dynamics, not exogenous macro events.