Will "January" determine the fate of 2026?

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There is an old saying on Wall Street:
"How January goes, the whole year goes."

Today, as we are in the final days of the month,
data indicates that the S&P 500 has risen by 1.94% since the beginning of the year.

Historically, these are not just passing numbers,
but a strong statistical indicator:
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Probability of success:
When the market ends January in the green, the probability of ending the entire year with gains reaches up to 87%.

Average return:
In years that started with a "positive January," the average return for the rest of the year from February to December was about 12.2%.

Stability:
Years that begin with an upward trend often experience fewer sharp declines (Drawdowns) compared to years that start with setbacks.
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Summary:
Although statistics are not a guarantee of the future,
they reflect "momentum" and investor sentiment.

The current rally led by the technology and artificial intelligence sectors presents us with a promising investment year,

unless major geopolitical or economic surprises alter this course.

Cautious optimism, but the numbers favor the optimists so far.

What are your expectations for the rest of the year?
Will the market continue its record-breaking journey or will we see a "correction" that reshuffles the cards?

I look forward to your opinions,

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