The real concern isn't about strength—it's weakness. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are less worried about Iran's capability and more anxious about its potential collapse.

Here's the paradox: A decisive U.S. military strike could actually stabilize the current regime by handing it a convenient external enemy. That rallies domestic support and buys time. But what if it fails? The alternative regime could pose far greater unpredictability to regional stability and global markets.

For anyone tracking geopolitical risk as part of their macro thesis, this is worth noting. When major powers fear the unknown more than the known threat, markets tend to reprice asymmetric risks accordingly.