Yesterday's ADP employment data release completely dashed the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut in January. According to CME data, the probability of a rate cut has fallen to 11.1%, indicating that investors generally believe the economic fundamentals can still support the current stance, and the Federal Reserve doesn't need to rush to loosen policy.

This is not necessarily good news for the crypto market. The shift in expectations means hot money will become more cautious, and high-risk assets built on liquidity will naturally come under pressure first. In September and October last year, expectations of rate cuts kept rising, and what everyone saw was a wave of gains. Now the sentiment has reversed, and the reality is quite straightforward.

Interestingly, this also reflects a problem—the era of simply trading coins blindly may really be over. From now on, every inflation report and employment data will become a market indicator. Instead of passively taking hits, it's better to actively understand the macroeconomic changes and logic, so as to find opportunities amid volatility.