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High-quality companies and reasonable prices, but there has been no sign of improvement for a long time. The real economy is indeed under pressure these days, even traditional consumer goods like China Tobacco are experiencing sluggish sales, which shows how cold the market sentiment is.
Looking back at the old ledger from 2014, after the stock market surged, housing prices started to take off in 2016. Every winter downturn is usually followed by a rebound, and this pattern still seems to hold. But the problem is, the population dividend that supported the previous surge is no longer present. So, hoping for another nationwide rally? That has basically become a luxury.
Remember those years during the infrastructure cycle, how the liquor sector soared rapidly? But those good times are long gone. Leading brands like Moutai have changed roles — from once being aggressive assets to now serving more as defensive assets, acting as a ballast in asset allocation rather than the main driver of returns.
The demographic dividend is gone. Want to replicate the 2014 story? Dream on.
Moutai has shifted from offense to defense, in other words, it's no longer promising. Now it's just a financial product.
This round is really cold, it feels like there's no bottom line.
The era of huge profits in the past really won't come back.
Even Chinese cigarettes are stagnating, what does that say?
Moutai has shifted from offense to defense, and that's the reality.
Who could profit when housing prices were soaring? And now?
Good times have long ended; it's time to face reality.
Even consumer goods are not selling well; the economy is indeed cooling down.
The ballast stone is just a ballast stone; don't expect it to surge again.
Want to relive the dream of 2016? Wake up, brother.
The demographic dividend is gone, and you still want to replicate the 2014 model? Dream on.
Moutai changing from an offensive player to a defensive player, that's just ridiculous. Once a cash cow, now just a stabilizer.
Wait, does this logic mean the entire system needs to be reconstructed?
With the real economy so cold, should I buy the dip or run away, everyone?
The demographic dividend is gone, and you still want prices to rise together? Dream on, brother.
Moutai has gone from an attacker to a goalkeeper, this change is a bit harsh.
Everyone is relying on old gains; there are no new stories.
Rather than waiting for a rebound, it's better to think about how to survive.
The demographic dividend is gone, and they still want to rise together. How are they dreaming this up?
Moutai has shifted from offense to defense, and we need to change our mindset accordingly.
No population, no growth. What can this rebound rely on? I really can't figure it out.
The good times are long gone; now it's just about enduring the days.
Ballast? Sounds good, but in reality, it's just lying flat. From offense to defense, the story of Moutai is a microcosm of this cycle.
Even Chinese cigarettes are no longer selling well, which is the most genuine signal. Don't believe in any rebound patterns; those are all survivor bias.
The end of good times is not the problem; the real issue is how many people are still waiting for the wind to come.
Objectively speaking, nationwide synchronized growth is already a dream of the past era. Now it's about differentiation—top players withstand pressure, and others? [Cold laugh]