2025-12-10 12:00:25

#数字资产生态回暖 Liquidity Shock on Fed Decision Night

The probability of rate cuts has been set at 89.4%, and the global capital gates have officially opened. What does this combination of the Federal Reserve—ending the balance sheet runoff and cutting interest rates by 25 basis points—mean for risk assets like BTC? Historical data provides an answer: during the rate-cutting cycle in 2020, the crypto market surged by 443%. The logic at that time was simple: more money flowed into high-risk, high-reward assets.

The current signals are also very clear. Spot ETFs have absorbed over $46.6 billion in net inflows, indicating that institutional investors are clearly positioning themselves early. The market’s target for BTC is around $125,000, a figure not plucked from thin air but based on historical cycles and actual institutional positions.

The key question is: in this liquidity feast, do you want to participate or watch from the sidelines? In the face of trends, the choice is in your hands. Entering now means aligning with the macro rhythm; waiting could mean missing out on key market movements for the year. Once the gates open, the power of institutional funds will be quickly evident.

BTC2.68%

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MEVHunter

· 23m ago

ngl the 466B inflow into spot ETFs is just institutions sandwiching retail... they're already positioned, now they're herding us into their bags. watch the mempool before you fomo in.

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AirdropAnxiety

· 12-10 12:30

Institutions are all rushing to buy spot, what are you still hesitating for? Wait, is 46.6 billion real? It feels a bit unbelievable. It's again 125,000, I've heard this number so many times, can it really reach that? Once the gate opens, they rush in. Aren't you afraid of getting caught? I'm a little scared. I truly missed the wave in 2020, I can't stand on the sidelines and watch this time. As soon as the rate cut cycle begins, institutions start moving. Should retail investors follow or not? That's the question. Why doesn't the white paper mention risks? Only talking about positives is a bit misleading. With a 89.4% probability, talking so precisely—are they fortune-telling here? Money will flow into BTC, no doubt, but only if black swans don't appear. That makes me even more anxious.

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SchroedingerGas

· 12-10 12:26

Institutions have already secretly entered the market, while we are still debating whether to rush in. It's a bit funny.

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FOMOmonster

· 12-10 12:19

Institutions are silently buying, what are we still hesitating for? --- Is 125k really stable? Feels a bit uncertain. --- The money is coming, if I don't join, I'll truly regret it. --- $46.6 billion... Damn, this力度确实不一样 --- History doesn't repeat but it rhymes, this time it really feels like it's coming. --- The problem is I have no money hahaha. --- Wait a minute, I'm still observing... Don't rush me. --- Betting on BTC with an 89.4% probability, I’m cautious of gambler’s mentality. --- As soon as the Federal Reserve loosens, global funds follow suit, this game is quite something. --- Institutions have long been lurking, retail investors are still hesitating.

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ThesisInvestor