MikeS

The race to build payment rails for AI agents is accelerating. Coinbase shipped x402. ~100M agent transactions on Base. Circle launched Programmable Wallets on Solana. Now WLFI enters with AgentPay SDK: → AI agents can hold funds, transact, and settle autonomously across EVM

Although Ethereum and Tron lead in stablecoin supply, Solana is already competing on transfer volume, processing ~$650B+ in February alone, ~2x prior highs. Payment and settlement flows are scaling fast (~755% YoY), alongside a few key developments: → Visa piloting USDC

Timely announcement - first official S&P 500 perpetual contract on HL:

HIP-3 perp DEX OI just hit ~$1.3B (ATH) - and it’s not crypto driving it. → Commodities: $657M → Indices: $267M → Equities: $240M → Crypto: <$50M 85% of OI is TradFi exposure. Oil alone went from near zero in Jan to ~31% share in ~2 months.

$HYPE - one of the few protocols that remains extremely profitable regardless of market conditions. HIP-3 expansion into commodities has brought in traders seeking continuous exposure to oil markets. We're seeing ~$10m in weekly buybacks, with ~14.1% of circulating supply

BTC and majors still showing strength. Asia session has been consistently bid and Binance spot CVD finally pushing higher after prolonged selling. Bias toward continuation from here - looking for BTC to reclaim $80k, ETH $2.4k and SOL $100.

x402 transactions on Base approaching 100M. Real usage. AI agents are starting to transact at scale on crypto rails. Why crypto over cards? Credit cards need a human with a bank account behind every transaction. Agents can't open bank accounts. Stablecoins don't need them to.

$319B in stablecoins on-chain now. Roughly doubled over the past year. Stablecoin payments remain one of the most important use cases in crypto. Usage is concentrated on just a few chains. → Ethereum ($186B) Still the institutional settlement layer. BlackRock's BUIDL lives

Longs starting to look constructive here. Coinbase premium back positive, spot CVD picking up, while funding is negative as shorts open. Also lines up with macro - Iran missile + drone attack velocity has dropped sharply in recent days vs the start of the conflict, and oil has

Hyperliquid continues to perform and consistently generate $2M+ in fees (24H). US-Iran tensions drove traders to on-chain commodities perps, especially when TradFi was closed. OI hit a record $1.1B. Decentralized perps don't close on Saturdays. HIP-3 now live: builders

Trading this 60-72k BTC range has been interesting - PA super reflexive to war headlines. I longed after the first strike as BTC held steady on bad news, then flipped short past mid-range when retaliation escalated into the weekend and it looked like this drags out. Today we’ve

RWAs on Solana just crossed $1.7B in market cap. Top 3 leading the charge: • BUIDL ~ $552M • PRIME ~$339M • USDY ~ $177M For context, Ethereum's RWA market sits at $15B+. Solana is at ~11% of that, but a year ago, this number was barely on the radar. The trajectory matters

OI rising, funding still negative - shorts adding into the move. Spot driving this push and Coinbase premium flipped positive. $72k BTC looks likely if this holds.

Interesting to see prediction market activity rising even after major events like the Super Bowl. Weekly spot txs just hit 38.1M - new ATH. • Polymarket: 19.6M • Kalshi: 17.4M Both at all-time highs. Hard to ignore the capital flowing into the space. Rates, elections,

Starting the year, looking at where early VC money in Web3 is actually flowing. $2B+ already raised. Dragonfly also announced a new $650m fund. Here’s what’s getting funded: • Stablecoin rails (settlement, cards, embedded finance) • Institutional infra (custody, prime,

Base took Ethereum’s #1 spot in monthly stablecoin transfer volume (Jan): • Base: ~$5.86T • Ethereum: ~$2.49T (Tron/Solana both < $0.7T) Context matters: Volume ≠ users, but it is flow. Catalyst mix is pretty clear: Coinbase distribution (Base App / smart wallets) + native

PYUSD deposits on Aave jumped ~40x in Q4 ’25, from $10M to ~$400M. Context: PayPal launched on-chain incentives (via Merkl) to close a very specific gap: PayPal pays ~4% in-app, but on-chain holders don’t get that yield. → Incentives effectively “ported” the in-app yield to

Haven’t actively traded for a while, but the market is starting to present some good opportunities. BTC wicked to 60k while the dip was aggressively bought on Friday, with $300m+ in net inflows from BTC ETFs. SOL also looks oversold - it broke the HTF trend line and is now moving

Closed, 84.5k hit.