JPMorgan predicts a 50% chance of the Romanian currency depreciating by 15%-20%.
Jin10 data reported on May 9th that analysts at JPMorgan believe there is a 50% chance of political turmoil in Romania, leading to a 15-20% depreciation of the national currency, the leu, while another possibility is a 5% depreciation. The Romanian financial market has been volatile this week due to the victory of far-right presidential candidate George Simion in the first round of voting on Sunday, deepening the political crisis in this Central European economy. Analysts at JPMorgan stated that while stability following the decisive second round of elections on May 18 could limit the depreciation of the leu to within 5%, how Romania manages its expenditures amid further turmoil and uncertainty may trigger a larger adjustment. They wrote: "At present, we see the probability between these two scenarios as 50%/50%, but this is a highly uncertain judgment."