Akankah Crypto Melihat Kenaikan di Q1 2026? Strategi Likuiditas Fed Bisa Jadi Penggerak Utama

Paradoks Pemotongan Suku Bunga: Mengapa Pasar Tetap Hati-Hati

The Federal Reserve delivered three consecutive 0.25% rate cuts throughout 2025 as inflation cooled and unemployment rose, yet Bitcoin and Ether—along with the broader crypto ecosystem—failed to celebrate. Instead, the sector shed over $1.45 trillion from its October peak, defying the typical dovish stimulus playbook.

The reason? Market participants remained skeptical of further monetary accommodation. Fed officials, including New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, made clear that the central bank sees little urgency for additional cuts. “I don’t personally have a sense of urgency to need to act further on monetary policy right now, because I think the cuts we’ve made have positioned us really well,” Williams stated, underscoring the Fed’s data-dependent stance. With core inflation at 2.63% as of November, the door to further easing remains narrowly cracked.

This uncertainty has created a ceiling for risk assets heading into early 2026. If the Fed maintains a holding pattern through Q1, downside scenarios are real: BTC could test $70,000 support levels, while ETH might dip toward $2,400 according to market participants—a significant pullback from current levels around $95.50K and $3.31K respectively.

The Hidden Stimulus: How “Stealth QE” Changes the Equation

However, there’s a counter-narrative gaining traction among market observers. On December 1st, the Federal Reserve formally transitioned away from quantitative tightening, ending the multi-year period of balance-sheet contraction. The central bank now rolls over all maturing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities without reserve drainage.

More importantly, the Fed launched Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs)—a $40 billion short-term Treasury bill buying program designed to stabilize banking reserves and smooth money market conditions. Analysts increasingly view this as a backdoor form of quantitative easing, or “stealth QE,” injecting liquidity without headlines.

The historical precedent is striking. During the 2020-2021 quantitative easing phase, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded by approximately $800 billion monthly, and the crypto market cap surged by over $2.9 trillion during that window. If RMPs persist through Q1 2026 at measured levels, they could quietly support risk appetite without fanfare.

Where Bitcoin and Ethereum Could Climb in Q1

This liquidity backdrop paints a different picture than pure rate-cut analysis. Sustained Reserve Management Purchases could propel Bitcoin toward the $92,000-$98,000 range, aided by ETF capital inflows exceeding $50 billion and institutional accumulation patterns. Ethereum would likely move in tandem, benefiting from the same liquidity conditions that lift the broader altcoin complex.

The bottom line: crypto’s Q1 2026 trajectory hinges less on whether the Fed cuts rates again and more on whether reserve injections continue flowing into the system. Liquidity—not policy rates—may ultimately determine whether this quarter delivers the climb the sector has been anticipating or tests lower support levels instead.