#比特币站上7.5万美元
120,000 Liquidations Behind the Layout--Short Squeeze Tops May Signal Short-Term Peak
After the earlier slump, the cryptocurrency market has recently ushered in spring. On March 17, Bitcoin broke through $75,000, reaching a high of $76,100 and creating a recent peak. How will the main players position next? CaiShenXiao believes we should be vigilant about the main players initiating a long squeeze after a short squeeze!
📈 Chart Analysis
👉 Technical Analysis: The daily chart holds above short-term moving averages, the four-hour Bollinger Band mid-line is stabilizing, MACD has formed a golden cross above the 0 axis, showing short-term strength; however, attention should be paid to the daily 60-period moving average exerting obvious pressure on price, with potential for pullback or even short-term reversal. From a larger weekly timeframe perspective, the MA10 moving average near 74,245 also shows relatively obvious resistance.
👉 News: 1. The US-Iran conflict remains intense with no near-term peace prospects, and the crypto community has already fully digested the negative impacts from the conflict.
2. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting early Thursday morning will directly impact market movement. The market expects that for the March meeting (March 17-18, 2026): the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is as high as 99.9%, with only a 0.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, meaning there is virtually zero possibility of initiating rate cuts in this meeting. Against this backdrop, if the Fed maintains rates unchanged, the bearish impact on markets is limited. Conversely, focus should be on the Fed's remarks following the rate decision meeting—if hawkish, it could be bearish for markets; if dovish, it would be bullish for crypto and precious metals.
3. Market concerns about "stagflation" risks in the US economy, meaning inflation rebound coupled with economic growth slowdown; if realized, it would be bearish for crypto and precious metals markets.
👉 Funding: Last week's trading day saw Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows of $767 million, achieving net inflows for three consecutive weeks; Ethereum spot ETF net inflows of $161 million, achieving net inflows for three consecutive weeks; on March 16, Bitcoin whale Strategy announced that it purchased 22,337 BTC between March 9-15, 2026, with a total purchase price of $1.57 billion and an average entry price of $70,194.
📊 Trading Strategy--Take Profits on Rallies, Enter Short Positions
Price requires a pullback after the recent sharp rally, combined with obvious resistance near 74,500, challenging the $80,000 round level in the short term appears difficult. I choose to take profit on all long positions and spot holdings, and enter shorts on rallies, with stop loss set at previous highs. Specific levels are as follows:
Short Positions
Entry: Above 74,000
Take Profit: 70,000
Stop Loss: 76,200
Long Positions
Entry: Above 69,000
Take Profit: 75,000
Stop Loss: 68,000
