The Father of Treasury Yield Curve Forecasting: An inversion means that the Fed should cut interest rates as soon as possible

Campbell Harvey, a professor at Duke University, said that the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is flashing recession signals, and the Federal Reserve should act quickly to start cutting interest rates. Harvey identified the predictive nature of inverted curves as early as the 1980s. Harvey said the curve, which measures the difference between 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields, has been inverted for the past 13 months, which is the average lead time before the economy falls into a recession. "It’s the 13th month. The Fed can help solve the problem by dropping the federal funds Intrerest rate as soon as possible. ”