Watch out for black swans appearing suddenly! Jeff Park: Bitcoin could surge to $150,000 if adopted by sovereign nations

ProCap Chief Investment Officer Jeff Park stated that the black swan event for Bitcoin’s upside would be sovereign adoption. Park pointed out that if a major developed market, an OECD country, suddenly announced it would purchase Bitcoin for its balance sheet and actually did so, such an announcement could push Bitcoin to around $150,000 overnight.

Why Sovereign Adoption of Bitcoin Is the Ultimate Catalyst

(Source: Anthony Pompliano)

Jeff Park refers to sovereign adoption of Bitcoin as a “black swan event,” a term in finance that specifically describes extremely low-probability but highly impactful events. His logic is: if a major developed market, OECD country suddenly announced it would purchase Bitcoin for its balance sheet and actually followed through, this would fundamentally change Bitcoin’s positioning—from a speculative asset to a sovereign-grade reserve asset.

The impact of this shift is multi-layered. First, sovereign endorsement would remove the biggest investment barrier for Bitcoin: questions of legitimacy. Currently, many institutional and conservative investors remain skeptical of Bitcoin, worried about its lack of government backing or potential regulatory crackdowns. Once an OECD country formally includes Bitcoin in its national reserves, these concerns would dissipate instantly, opening the floodgates for institutional capital.

Second, sovereign adoption would trigger a chain reaction. When the first country makes this move, other countries will face a “Nash equilibrium dilemma”: not following suit could mean missing out on reserve appreciation from Bitcoin’s price surge; following suit would drive Bitcoin’s price even higher, making it more expensive for latecomers. This game-theory logic could spark a “sovereign adoption race,” with multiple countries rushing to buy Bitcoin to gain an early advantage.

Third, sovereign adoption would create massive and sustained demand. National reserves are typically measured in tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. If a mid-size OECD country decided to allocate just 1% of its foreign reserves to Bitcoin, this could mean billions of dollars in new buy orders. More importantly, this buying would be for long-term holding, unlike speculative capital that moves in and out frequently, which would significantly reduce Bitcoin’s market supply.

The Fourfold Effect of Sovereign Adoption

Legitimacy Revolution: Upgrades Bitcoin from a speculative asset to a sovereign reserve, removing institutional investment barriers

Chain Reaction: Triggers other countries to follow, creating a “sovereign adoption race”

Massive Demand: National-level buying measured in billions of dollars, intended for long-term holding

Supply Shock: Sovereign holders are unlikely to sell, greatly reducing market liquidity

It Must Be Real, Not a Marketing Gimmick

Park particularly emphasized that this must be real, not a marketing gimmick, rumor, or misinterpretation of government officials’ statements. “It has to be real,” he said. “It can’t be that kind of fake version we’ve lived with for about a year.” This warning is highly pointed.

Over the past year, the crypto market has been rife with rumors of “some country about to adopt Bitcoin.” These stories often stem from ambiguous statements by government officials or exaggerated interpretations of policy documents. Whenever such news breaks, Bitcoin’s price may briefly surge, but quickly retreats when the news is debunked or clarified. This “hype → disappointment” cycle has already made the market immune.

What Park calls “real adoption” must meet several criteria. First, it must be an official, formal announcement—not media speculation or anonymous sources. Second, it must include concrete execution plans, such as the scale of purchases, timeline, and source of funds. Third, it must be formally booked on the national balance sheet, not just an investment by a government pension fund or a state-owned enterprise. Only by meeting these conditions can it be called true “sovereign adoption.”

Jan3 founder Samson Mow recently stated that nation-state adoption might come faster than people expect. “I think we’re at the end of the ‘gradually’ phase and at the start of the ‘suddenly’ phase,” Mow said. This view echoes Park’s analysis, suggesting that sovereign adoption might not be a distant future, but an imminent reality.

Which countries are most likely to be first movers? Small, fiscally nimble countries have the highest probability. El Salvador already made Bitcoin legal tender in 2021—while the results have been mixed, it set a precedent. The Central African Republic briefly adopted it but later abandoned it. Potential future candidates include Argentina (facing severe inflation), Lebanon (currency system collapse), or certain Eastern European countries (seeking financial independence).

Quantum Computing Uncertainty as a Catalyst for Whale Sell-Offs

Park also stated that “some kind of clarity on quantum computing solutions” could help Bitcoin’s price action in the short term. “I know quantum is this weird monster that people keep talking about,” he said, implying that this uncertainty may be one reason why long-term Bitcoin holders have been selling recently.

“If whales are selling, the reasons they’re selling might be as unlikely as the reasons they bought in 2012 and 2011,” he said. “You have to categorize these tail events as catalysts for their behavioral changes.” This view offers a new perspective for understanding recent whale selling. Glassnode data shows long-term holders have been selling continuously in recent weeks, but Glassnode believes this is normal, cyclical profit-taking.

However, Park’s interpretation goes deeper: these whales who bought Bitcoin in 2011–2012 might have done so out of distrust for fiat systems, belief in decentralized tech, or speculation on early innovation. Now, the threat of quantum computing may be shaking some of the foundations of those beliefs. If quantum computers could actually break Bitcoin’s cryptography, the entire system could collapse. While this tail risk is extremely low probability, the consequences would be severe.

Park stated that some degree of clarity could be “at least the kind of thing that stops selling pressure.” “If you at least stop the selling pressure, then you know that the buy pressure is actually adding more incremental capital to price action,” he said. Here, “clarity” could include: consensus among Bitcoin core developers on quantum-resistant upgrades, or authoritative assessments by quantum computing experts showing that the threat is limited in the short term.

Recently, concerns over quantum computing and Bitcoin have been rising. Gianluca Di Bella, a smart contract researcher specializing in zero-knowledge proofs, said that the dangers of quantum computing are not a distant worry—they are a current concern. At the same time, Bitcoin veteran Willy Woo recently proposed an “intermediate measure” involving moving Bitcoin to SegWit-compatible addresses and storing it there until a quantum-resistant protocol is developed.