Bitcoin's "Red October": Why the much-anticipated "Uptober" (Pump October) crypto rise fell short?

The mid-October dumping caused mainstream tokens to fall away from the early month highs, leading Bitcoin to close down for the month, while BNB and a few alts ended the month with a rise.

Key Points:

According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin fell 8.5% in October, breaking the six-year “Uptober” rise shown on the CoinGlass “Bitcoin Monthly Returns” heatmap.

The monthly chart of TradingView shows that the impact in mid-October and the subsequent rebound failed to bring BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP back to their early-month highs.

BNB finished October with a rise of about 4.2%, becoming an “outlier” among the top ten coins.

Bitcoin fell in October, breaking its six-year winning streak of “Uptober”; meanwhile, BNB barely managed to rise. A mid-month shock left most mainstream tokens trapped below the early month highs.

The impact occurred on October 10, when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose high new tariffs on China amid tensions over rare earths, triggering widespread risk-off selling.

In the fast trading, Bitcoin slipped from a low of about $120,000 to about $105,000, while alts experienced even greater declines due to liquidity exhaustion and high leverage. Between October 10 and 11, derivatives exchanges automatically liquidated positions estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars, with over $500 billion in market value evaporating before a shaky rebound built a bottom. This is the result of a collision between macro headlines and crowded positions, not triggered by catalysts unique to the crypto industry.

By the end of the month, CoinDesk data showed that Bitcoin fell in October (in the red), a result that broke what traders referred to as “Uptober.”

On CoinGlass's “Bitcoin Monthly Returns” heat map, October 2025 is the first “red” (fall) October since 2018, ending the green (rise) streak from 2019 to 2024. This (historical) “legend” is significant because the pattern has persisted in very different (market) environments—whether in the surge at the end of a cycle or the recovery after a sell-off—therefore, the “miss” in 2025 resets market expectations and reminds traders: seasonality is a trend, not a promise.

This month's (price) pattern has shown a very consistent performance on the one-month chart of TradingView.

Bitcoin started strong but experienced a simultaneous “air pocket” fall from October 10 to 11, then climbed in the second half of the month, but failed to recover the early month's high point. Ethereum also depicted the same “flush-base-fade” arc and stagnated below the integer threshold tested in its first week. Solana and XRP echoed this rhythm, showing a series of lower highs in the last few trading sessions. In fact, the later rebound did not manage to flip the resistance into support, which is why the monthly candlestick for these four coins all printed red.

BNB has diverged from the market. It has endured downward pressure in the middle of the month, building higher lows in the last third of the time and closing with a rise of about 4.2%—leaving behind a green (pump) candlestick while peers were falling. Outside the top ten, several coins monitored in this article also closed October with gains, including ZEC, XMR, and WBTC, highlighting that even when leading coins cool down, there is still ongoing localized strength beneath the surface of the market.

The reason why the “Uptober” brand can deeply resonate with people is simple. It is a nickname created by the community, stemming from the tendency of Bitcoin to rise in October over the past decade, and it has been reinforced by CoinGlass charts showing that every October from 2019 to 2024 has been green (rising). This year, flipping that cell to red (falling) does not erase the historical tendency, but it does prompt a return to risk management based on confirmation of market trends (tape confirmation), rather than blind faith in the calendar (calendar confidence).

Different data dashboards may present varying results due to some common reasons. CoinGlass displays the results for the calendar month, from close to close, reflecting the situation solely for October. In contrast, the rolling 30-day readings on mainstream tracking websites are continuously updated and often include the highs from early October. Therefore, even if the strict calendar month (fall) appears milder, they (the rolling 30-day data) may show a steeper decline as they enter November 1. The direction is consistent; it is just the difference in measurement windows that leads to the variation in (fall) magnitude.