Trump pardons CZ for Money Laundering! Polymarket prediction market: the possibility of returning to Binance is only 34%.

This week, U.S. President Trump pardoned Binance founder CZ. Following this news, gamblers on the Polymarket prediction market saw the odds of CZ returning to Binance by December 31, 2025 soar to 82%, but then quickly drop back to 34%. CZ thanked Trump for the pardon and revealed that a new book is set to be published.

Trump Pardons CZ to End Crypto War

On October 23, after former Binance CEO CZ admitted to committing money laundering at the cryptocurrency exchange in 2023, Trump decided to pardon him. This Trump pardon decision marks a significant shift in the U.S. regulatory attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry. As part of the resolution, Binance agreed to pay over $4 billion in forfeitures, while CZ was ordered to pay a $50 million fine.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated, “President Trump exercised his constitutional authority to grant a pardon to Mr. Zhao, who was prosecuted by the Biden administration in the cryptocurrency war.” She added, “The Biden administration wants to punish the cryptocurrency industry, despite the lack of fraud charges or identifiable victims, yet they continue to pursue Mr. Zhao.”

This statement redefines CZ's case as a politically driven regulatory action rather than a purely legal issue. The White House's statement implies that the Biden administration's tough stance on the crypto industry is viewed by the Trump administration as an unfair and politically motivated “crypto war.” This narrative shift has profound implications for the entire crypto industry, as it marks a change in the attitude of the U.S. federal government towards cryptocurrencies from adversarial to supportive.

Trump's decision to pardon CZ is in line with his broader crypto-friendly policies. Since taking office, Trump has fired SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, withdrawn or settled multiple lawsuits against crypto companies, and established a strategic Bitcoin reserve. CZ's pardon is a continuation of this series of policies, further solidifying Trump's image as the “crypto president.”

After the news broke, CZ expressed his gratitude for the pardon on X Thursday morning and thanked supporters for their “congratulatory messages.” CZ wrote: “I am very grateful for today's pardon and to President Trump for upholding America's commitment to fairness, innovation, and justice. We will do our utmost to help America become the capital of cryptocurrency and advance the development of Web3 globally.”

This statement reveals CZ's future direction. “We will do our best” suggests that CZ is not planning to retire or step back from the crypto space, but is instead preparing to participate more actively in industry development. “Helping the U.S. become the cryptocurrency capital” aligns closely with the Trump administration's policy goals, indicating that CZ may play a role in policy advocacy or industry alliances.

Polymarket gamblers bet on the drastic fluctuations of CZ's return to Binance

(Source: Polymarket)

A poll from Polymarket shows that the likelihood of CZ returning to cryptocurrency exchanges rose to 62% at one point, but this figure subsequently fell and remained relatively stable at around 34%. This dramatic fluctuation reflects the market's immediate reaction to the news of Trump's pardon and the subsequent rational adjustment.

In a poll on the Polymarket website titled “Will CZ return to Binance before December 31?”, the likelihood of CZ returning to the cryptocurrency exchange has soared to 82%. This figure is up 68% from earlier on October 23, when Polymarket bettors set the odds of his release at 14%. The jump from 14% to 82% demonstrates the impact of Trump's pardon on market expectations.

However, as of October 24, polls show that the likelihood of CZ returning to the cryptocurrency organization remains stable at around 36%. This adjustment from 82% down to 36% reflects market participants beginning to rationally assess the real obstacles after initial excitement. Although CZ has been granted amnesty, he still faces multiple restrictions in returning to Binance.

CZ's Three Major Obstacles to Returning to Binance:

Regulatory Restrictions: As part of a plea agreement, CZ may still be restricted from holding management positions at Binance.

Corporate Governance: Binance has reorganized its management team after CZ's departure.

Market Confidence: CZ's return may trigger trust issues with regulators and partners.

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform where users can bet on the outcomes of various events. The collection of these bets forms the market's consensus estimate of the probability of an event occurring. Research shows that prediction markets often provide more accurate forecasts than traditional polls for elections, policy changes, and other uncertain events, as participants have real financial stakes involved, prompting them to make more rational judgments.

A stable probability of 36% suggests that the market believes there is a possibility of CZ returning to Binance, but it is not certain. This figure is higher than the 50% of random guessing, indicating that Trump's pardon has indeed increased this possibility, but it remains below the level most people expected. Bettors may have considered CZ's legal constraints, changes in Binance's corporate governance structure, and the possibility that CZ himself may choose other career paths.

CZ reveals new book plan hinting at future direction

CZ also revealed a significant update, but it is currently unclear what his latest project will specifically focus on. “The book is coming out soon,” he said. This brief tweet sparked widespread speculation about the contents of CZ's new book and his future career plans.

From a timing perspective, CZ chose to announce his new book plan immediately after Trump's pardon, suggesting that the book may cover his legal experiences, views on crypto regulation, and the internal story of Binance. Similar memoirs from the crypto space have previously garnered widespread attention. As the founder of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, his personal experiences will hold significant market value.

The publication of the new book may also be a strategy for CZ to reshape his public image. His guilty plea and imprisonment have damaged CZ's reputation, and although Trump's pardon has somewhat “cleared” that part of history, by telling his story through the book, CZ can more proactively control the narrative. He can explain the challenges Binance faced regarding anti-money laundering compliance, interactions with regulatory agencies, and his vision for the future of the cryptocurrency industry.

CZ mentioned in a tweet that “we will do our best to help the United States become the cryptocurrency capital,” suggesting that he may be more involved in policy advocacy in the future rather than directly managing the exchange. The new book could be the first step in this transformation, shifting CZ from an exchange operator to an industry thought leader and policy influencer. This role change could circumvent the regulatory barriers of a direct return to Binance while still maintaining influence in the crypto space.

The Reality of Binance Management Changes and CZ's Return

Even if CZ receives a pardon from Trump, his return to Binance still faces practical operational challenges. After CZ's guilty plea and departure, Richard took over as CEO of Binance. He was previously a regulatory officer at the Monetary Authority of Singapore and later joined Binance as the head of global regional markets. His regulatory background is seen as a key asset in rebuilding Binance's compliance reputation.

Binance underwent a major organizational restructuring after CZ's departure, strengthening its compliance, risk management, and legal teams. The agreements the company reached with U.S. regulators include oversight by independent monitors to ensure that anti-money laundering measures are enforced. Against this backdrop, CZ's sudden return could be seen as a setback to these reforms, raising concerns among regulators.

From a business perspective, CZ remains the main shareholder of Binance, and his influence has never completely disappeared. However, formally returning to management and maintaining a shareholder status are two different things. The 36% probability on Polymarket may reflect this subtle balance: CZ may participate in Binance as an advisor, board member, or strategic consultant, rather than resuming the CEO position.

In addition, CZ himself may have lost interest in returning to Binance. The “new projects” and “advancing Web3 development” mentioned in his tweet suggest that he may be more interested in founding new enterprises or investing in other crypto projects, rather than returning to a role in daily operations. After receiving a pardon from Trump, CZ has greater freedom and options, and he may choose to pursue more innovative or impactful ventures.