$536 million in funds fled! Bitcoin ETF saw the largest single-day net outflow since August, with $6 billion in options expiring today exacerbating market panic.

On Thursday, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a total net outflow of $536.4 million in a single day, setting the largest outflow record since August 1. Eight ETFs led by ARKB and FBTC reported negative outflows, while the Ethereum ETF also saw an outflow of $56.9 million, reversing the inflows from the previous two days. Meanwhile, nearly $6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today, and amid geopolitical uncertainty and tightening macro monetary policy, bearish sentiment in the options market has surged, exacerbating market panic.

ETF Capital Withdrawal: Risk Aversion Sentiment Reaches Peak

On Thursday, the net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $536 million, which is not only the highest single-day outflow since August 1, but also a direct reflection of the sharp decline in investors' risk appetite following last week's historic liquidation event.

· Leading the decline in ETFs: Amidst the outflow wave, Ark & 21Shares' ARKB saw a net outflow of $275.15 million, followed closely by Fidelity's FBTC with an outflow of $132 million.

·Ethereum ETF also affected: The Spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of $56.9 million, breaking the previous two trading days' positive inflow trend.

· Macroeconomic pressures drive outflows: LVRG Research Director Nick Ruck explained that the net outflow of $536 million “mainly reflects a sharp surge in investor risk aversion sentiment.” This caution may be driven by macro pressures such as U.S. tariff policies and broader market deleveraging events.

Market Vulnerability Exposed: Geopolitical and Clearing Aftermath

Since the historic cryptocurrency liquidation event triggered by the US tariff policy last week, the market has been in turmoil, with political uncertainty continuing to pose a threat to risk assets.

· Tariff-induced liquidation: Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, triggering the liquidation of over $20 billion in leveraged positions, affecting more than 1.5 million traders.

· Market Vulnerability: Ruck believes that the outflow of ETF funds “indicates a more vulnerable market in the near term,” and suggests that prices may face further downward pressure.

· The tug of two unresolved forces: Justin d'Anethan, research director at Arctic Digital, stated that the market “craves stability” but is still grappling with the pressures of geopolitical uncertainties and the restrictive monetary policy that has yet to change.

Options Market Unprecedentedly Tense: $6 Billion Expiration and Surge in Bearish Sentiment

As ETF funds are flowing out, nearly 6 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin and Ether options are expiring today, intensifying market tension.

· Defensive Deployment: Deribit data shows that the Bitcoin Put-to-Call Ratio is 0.83, with a notional value exceeding 4.79 billion USD. This reflects a surge in investor demand for hedging against downside risk.

· Maximum Pain Point and Upside Limit: The maximum pain point for Bitcoin is currently around $116,000, suggesting that traders believe the short-term upside potential is limited.

· Aggressive short hedging: Data from Greeks.Live shows that over $1.15 billion has flowed into short-term out-of-the-money (OTM) put options, accounting for about 28% of total options trading volume. The options skew has sharply turned negative, indicating that the market's demand for downside protection is the strongest since the market downturn on the 11th.

· Institutional Anxiety: Market makers and liquidity providers seem to be actively preparing for a price correction, reflecting an increasing anxiety about broader market stability.

Technical pressure and $93,500 bottom expectation

Continued selling pressure and defensive positioning in the derivatives market are testing Bitcoin's key support level.

· Price continues to fall: Bitcoin has fallen by 2.36% to $108360 in the past 24 hours, Ethereum has fallen by 2.56% to $3900.

· Impact of the Selini Capital Crisis: Selini Capital is said to have incurred a loss of 50 million USD due to a failed basis trade, which has also put heavy pressure on the derivatives market. Traders believe that meaningful bullish catalysts are unlikely to emerge until it stabilizes.

· Key technical defense: Although bulls are cautiously selling put options near the anticipated bottom, liquidity during the Asian trading session still leans bearish. Market participants are focusing on $93,500 as a potential bottom support, while $116,000 remains a major upward pain point.

Conclusion

Record ETF outflows, coupled with massive options nearing expiration, paint a picture of an extremely fragile and defensive crypto market. In the face of an unclear macroeconomic outlook and ongoing geopolitical tensions, traders have turned to protective strategies. Although inflation data is softening, indicating a potential turning point for central bank policies, market volatility is expected to remain high until clearer macro confirmation or diplomatic progress is achieved. The bearish skew in the options market suggests that the next major move for cryptocurrencies may still point downward.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.