XRP Today's News: The Sino-U.S. trade tensions are escalating, the Senate deadlock hinders the listing of the ETF, and the $2.4 death line is in jeopardy!

On October 14, the price of XRP plummeted by 3.92%, closing at $2.5053, failing to maintain the previous upward momentum. This pullback was mainly impacted by the escalation of the Sino-U.S. trade tensions affecting risk assets, as well as the prolonged government shutdown in the U.S. delaying the listing of the XRP Spot ETF. The Senate deadlock has now entered its 14th day, leaving the SEC with only “essential personnel” operating, effectively freezing the approval of the ETF. Although a report from CME Group indicated that institutional interest in XRP futures has reached a new high, political and trade risks are pushing XRP towards the critical support level of $2.4, determining whether it can return to $3 or dip further.

Macro risks intensify: The shadow of the China-U.S. trade war looms over the cryptocurrency market

On Tuesday, the deterioration of China-U.S. trade relations became a major factor triggering the sell-off of XRP and the broader cryptocurrency market.

· Tariffs and trade frictions resurface

On October 14, the United States and China imposed port fees on each other's goods transportation, reigniting concerns about a full-scale trade war. Previously, the market had hoped for a de-escalation of the situation following last week's rare earth export restrictions and the U.S. 100% tariff threat, but this news has dampened market sentiment once again. It is worth noting that Trump's previous tariff threats had caused XRP to plummet to a low of $0.7773 on October 10.

· Trump's remarks added fuel to the fire

U.S. President Trump further escalated tensions later that evening, openly accusing “China of deliberately not buying our soybeans” as “economic hostility,” and threatened to terminate business with China in edible oils and other trade elements as retaliation. The Kobeissi Letter commented that this threat led to a $450 billion evaporation in the stock market within 7 minutes, demonstrating the significant impact of trade frictions on global risk assets.

· Powell's speech was overshadowed

Against the backdrop of rising concerns over the trade war, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks about the labor market potentially weakening significantly were almost ignored by the market. Although Powell's comments further reinforced expectations for consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December, macro political risks still dominate.

Senate Deadlock and ETF Delay: Institutional Demand Limited

The ongoing deadlock in the U.S. Senate poses a direct threat to the short-term outlook for XRP.

· Government shutdown freezes ETF approvals

The Senate failed to pass a temporary funding bill, leading to the U.S. government shutdown entering its 14th day. On October 14, the Senate's attempt to advance the vote on the temporary funding bill failed for the eighth time. The ongoing shutdown means that the SEC can only operate with essential personnel, effectively freezing the approval process for the listing of the XRP Spot ETF. Greg Xethalis, Chief Legal Officer of Multicoin Capital, clarified that while the October 19b-4 deadline is not the final approval deadline for the ETF, the government shutdown will indeed delay the listing process.

· Impact on XRP institutional demand

The ongoing stalemate will delay institutional demand for XRP, which may limit its short-term rise. This means that the influence of the Capitol Hill event on XRP price trends will be greater than usual.

· Institutional interest has not waned.

Despite the hurdles in ETF approvals, institutional interest in derivatives of altcoins like XRP is growing. Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan cited a report from CME Group, stating that:

• The number of large open contract holders for XRP futures has reached a new high;
• Since May 2025, open contracts have reached 476,000, with a notional value of 23.7 billion USD;
• Last month's open contracts were 1.4 billion USD;
• Morgan commented that the rapid adoption of XRP and Solana futures indicates an increased demand from institutions for regulated altcoin derivatives, “the duopoly of Bitcoin/Ethereum in Spot ETFs will soon come to an end.”

Technical Analysis and Key Scenarios: Can XRP Hold Above $2.4?

XRP fell 3.92% on October 14, underperforming the market's 2.33% decline, with a closing price of 2.5053 USD breaking below the critical moving average, intensifying the bearish sentiment.

· Technical weakness and key support

The pullback of XRP has caused its price to dip below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reaffirming the bearish tendency.

• Key support levels: 2.4 USD, 2.0 USD and 1.9 USD.
• Key resistance levels: 200-day EMA (2.6327 USD) and 50-day EMA (2.8329 USD), as well as psychological resistance levels 2.7 USD and 3.0 USD.

· Bearish scenario: Risk of breaking below $2.4

If the following situation occurs, XRP may be dragged back to 2.4 dollars:

• BlackRock denies XRP Spot ETF plans.
• The deadlock in the U.S. Senate continues, with the ETF listing indefinitely delayed.
• Lawmakers voted against crypto-friendly bills such as the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies abandon using XRP as a reserve asset.
• SWIFT continues to dominate the global remittance market.
• Once it falls below 2.4 dollars, XRP will face the risk of dipping to 2.0 dollars.

· Bullish scenario: Returning to the $3 path

If the following situations occur, XRP is expected to push up to $2.7 and challenge the psychological resistance level of $3:

• The China-U.S. trade friction is cooling.
• The Senate passed a temporary funding bill, and the government reopened.
• BlackRock submitted the S-1 filing for the iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approved the XRP Spot ETF.
• Blue-chip companies purchase XRP as a financial reserve, more payment platforms adopt Ripple technology.
• Ripple has obtained a charter bank license in the United States, and the Senate has passed the Market Structure Bill.
• Ripple has made progress in weakening SWIFT's global remittance dominance.

So how can investors quickly seize opportunities in this situation? Most trading platforms now support buying XRP with Google Pay, with a simple and secure operation. Beginners can refer to the step-by-step purchasing guide: register, verify identity, bind payment, place an order to buy, and transfer XRP to a wallet, to complete the entire process.

Conclusion

Currently, the short-term fate of XRP highly depends on the political dynamics in Washington and the macro trade situation. Whether the Senate can pass the temporary funding bill is not only related to the reoperation of the U.S. government but also directly affects the SEC's approval process for the XRP Spot ETF. Although CME futures data indicates strong institutional demand for XRP derivatives, if the political deadlock and trade tensions persist, XRP will face the risk of dipping below the critical support level of 2.4 USD. Traders should closely monitor the voting results on Capitol Hill, U.S.-China trade headlines, and comments from the Federal Reserve, as these will be key factors in determining whether XRP can regain upward momentum and surge towards 3 USD.

This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.