The strong rebound of the US dollar and the expiration of 4.7 billion in options suppress the "October bull run": Bitcoin retreats to $121,000, and signals of institutional rotation appear.

Due to macro uncertainty and the rebound of the US Dollar Index (DXY), the cryptocurrency market experienced a slight pullback on Friday, October 10, with total market capitalization declining by 0.9%. Although the price of Bitcoin fell to $121,159, the US Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows for the seventh consecutive day, while the previously strong Ethereum ETF saw net outflows for the first time, indicating that institutional funds may be rotating into Bitcoin. Analysts believe that key catalysts such as the release of US CPI data later this month, the approval of the Solana Spot ETF, and the Fed meeting will determine the short-term fluctuation direction of the market.

Market Pullback and Subtle Changes in ETF Fund Flows

After reaching a recent high, the crypto market as a whole is facing selling pressure, but the details of fund flow reveal differences in institutional investor strategies.

· Overall market under pressure: The total market capitalization of the global crypto market fell by 0.9% to $4.24 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $20.2 billion. Major cryptocurrencies generally retreated, with Bitcoin down 0.8% to $121,159, and Ethereum experiencing a larger decline of 2.1% to $4,321. Other mainstream tokens such as BNB, XRP, and Solana also dropped by 0.7%, 1.1%, and 2.4%, respectively.

· ETF trends diverge: According to SoSoValue data, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $197.6 million on October 9, marking the seventh consecutive trading day of inflows. However, the inflow size has cooled compared to the $1.19 billion record set on October 6, which was the second-highest single-day record. Notably, after eight consecutive days of net inflows, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF experienced its first net outflow of $8.54 million.

· Institutional fund rotation: This comparison of fund flows has sparked market speculation that institutional traders may be rotating some funds from risk assets like Ethereum back to Bitcoin ahead of macro events to cope with potential market uncertainty.

Options Expiration and Macroeconomic Headwinds: Increased Short-Term Volatility

In the short term, the market's cautious sentiment is mainly driven by the massive options expiration and the strong rebound of the dollar, which are putting pressure on risk assets.

· Large Options Expiry: CoinGlass data shows that the open interest in the crypto futures market has slightly increased by 0.25% to $220 billion, with a total liquidation amount reaching $548 million. More notably, Bitcoin options worth $4.7 billion and Ethereum options worth $940 million are both set to expire at 8:00 AM UTC on October 10.

· Max Pain Price: The maximum pain price for Bitcoin options is at $118,000, with a put/call ratio of 1.10, indicating a slightly bearish position structure. Analysts point out that the options expiration could prompt traders to rebalance their positions, leading to short-term price fluctuations.

· Dollar Index Under Pressure: Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts commented that the pullback of Bitcoin is not "mysterious," but driven by macro factors. He pointed out that after experiencing one of the sharpest declines in decades, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rebounding to the range of 100 to 101, which is tightening global liquidity and putting pressure on risk assets such as Crypto Assets.

The Outlook for "Uptober": Three Key Catalysts Set the Tone for October

Despite the slight pullback in the market, analysts remain optimistic about the "October Bull Market" (Uptober) in the crypto market, with key catalysts expected to inject new momentum into the market in the second half of the month.

· Inflation Report: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on October 15, and this data will directly affect the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy.

· Regulatory Decision: On October 16, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will make a decision on the application for the Solana Spot ETF. If approved, this will become the third digital asset spot ETF approved by the SEC, following Bitcoin and Ethereum, significantly benefiting market sentiment and the Altcoin sector.

· Fed Meeting: The Fed meeting will be held on October 30, and the market widely expects the Fed to possibly implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Once the rate cut is in place, it may trigger a widespread chase for risk assets in the market.

Currently, despite market fluctuations, the "Fear and Greed Index" of the crypto market has only dropped by 6 points to 64, remaining in the "Greed" range, indicating that traders are still relatively optimistic about the long-term prospects of the market. Many believe that the current decline is a healthy consolidation rather than the end of a bull market pattern. If Bitcoin can hold the key support level of $120,000 and Ethereum stabilizes around $4,500, traders expect the market to rebound later this month, targeting $125,000 or higher.

Conclusion

Under the dual influence of macro factors and key end-of-month events, Bitcoin and the crypto market are undergoing a necessary "technical pullback." The continuous inflow of institutional funds provides a solid foundation for Bitcoin, while the temporary outflow of funds from Ethereum ETF indicates subtle adjustments in market strategy. As this month's CPI data and Fed meeting approach, short-term uncertainty in the market will peak, but these events are expected to ultimately lay the groundwork for the next phase of the bull market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.