Bitcoin financial company stock price is likely to big dump by 55%, PIPE financing model has become a "time bomb".

Bitcoin financial companies are facing severe challenges, with the stock prices of enterprises that have raised funds through PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) transactions rapidly approaching discount issuance levels, putting investors at risk of potential losses of up to 55%. As the lock-up period ends, a large volume of discounted stocks is about to flood the market, which may trigger a chain reaction, threatening not only the valuations of these companies but also potentially creating downward pressure on the entire Bitcoin market.

PIPE Financing Trap: The "Glamorous Bubble" of Bitcoin Financial Companies is Bursting

According to the latest report released by CryptoQuant on September 25, several companies that utilize PIPE trading to fund Bitcoin purchases are showing concerning price patterns. The stock prices of these companies often experience explosive growth initially, but then quickly fall back to near or below the PIPE issuance price, resulting in significant losses for investors.

· Kindly MD: Dramatic Crash After PIPE Financing

The most extreme example comes from Kindly MD. The company announced a PIPE issuance at a price of $1.12 per share in May, after which the stock price experienced an astonishing increase of 18.5 times, soaring from $1.88 to an intraday high of $34.77. However, the good times didn't last long, as the stock price subsequently plummeted by 97%, falling to $1.16, essentially returning to the level of the PIPE issuance price.

What is even more concerning is that more than half of the decline occurred within just one day after the PIPE stock unlock transaction, clearly demonstrating the destructive impact that can occur when a large amount of discounted stocks flood the market.

· Other Bitcoin financial companies face similar risks

Kindly MD is not an isolated case. Several Bitcoin financial companies are facing similar price pressures:

Strive (ASST): The current trading price is $3.00, down 78% from the 2025 peak, while its PIPE issuance price was $1.35. If the stock price falls back to PIPE levels, existing investors will face an additional loss of up to 55%. More concerning is that ASST's PIPE investors can sell their holdings next month, which may further exacerbate selling pressure.

Cantor Equity Partners: The current trading price is $19.74, while its common stock PIPE issuance price is $10.00, indicating a potential downside of 50%.

Empery Digital: The situation is more severe, with its stock price dropping to $7.94, a 21% discount from the $10.00 PIPE price. The stock peaked at $11.37 on August 13 and has since fallen to a low of $6.50, a decline of 42%. More notably, the company's market value has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, which is often seen as a signal of severe undervaluation.

PIPE Financing Model: The "Necessary Evil" of Bitcoin Financial Companies

Why do these Bitcoin financial companies rely so heavily on PIPE financing? The answer lies in their unique business models and funding needs.

Bitcoin financial companies typically need to quickly acquire large amounts of capital to execute their Bitcoin purchasing strategies, but they often lack:

· Traditional banking financing channels (due to regulatory uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrency-related businesses)

· Sufficient operating income (many companies focus only on holding Bitcoin, rather than generating cash flow)

· The time and conditions required for a traditional IPO

In this situation, PIPE trading offers speed and flexibility, allowing these companies to quickly raise funds and execute their Bitcoin purchasing strategies. However, this convenience comes with serious long-term risks.

Structural Defects of PIPE Financing

CryptoQuant's report indicates that the PIPE structure poses multiple disadvantages for existing shareholders:

Direct dilution: Issuing a large number of new shares to new investors dilutes the ownership of existing shareholders.

Discounted Pricing: PIPE investors typically purchase shares at a discount below market price.

"Hanging" Effect: Once the lock-up period ends, a large number of discounted stocks flood the market, causing selling pressure.

Registration Rights: PIPE investors typically have registration rights, allowing them to quickly liquidate positions after submitting a resale statement.

Industry Scale and Systemic Risk

The prevalence of PIPE financing in Bitcoin financial companies is concerning. According to a report by CryptoQuant, just five Bitcoin funds have raised over $2.5 billion through PIPE transactions, with Bitcoin holdings ranging from 3,205 BTC to 43,514 BTC.

This scale means that if the stock prices of these companies face pressure simultaneously, it could create a dangerous feedback loop:

· The decline in stock prices forces PIPE investors to sell off to lock in remaining profits.

· Increased selling pressure leads to stock price decline

· A decline in stock prices may force the company to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations or meet debt requirements.

· Bitcoin price is under pressure

· Bitcoin price decline further impacts the stock price of Bitcoin financial companies

· Only Bitcoin's continuous rise can break the vicious cycle.

Data indicates that only a sustained rise in Bitcoin prices can prevent these stocks from further declining. However, the current cryptocurrency market lacks new growth momentum, which means that many companies' stock prices may continue to trend towards or fall below their PIPE prices, as institutional investors who purchased at a significant discount seek to realize profits in the public market.

Investor Response Strategy

How should investors respond to this potential risk?

1. Pay attention to the end time of the lock-up period

Closely monitor the lock-up expiration dates of PIPE stocks from various companies. For example, ASST's PIPE investors will be able to sell their holdings next month, which could be a critical period for stock price fluctuations.

2. Evaluate the ratio of Bitcoin holdings to market value

Compare the value of the company's Bitcoin holdings with its market capitalization. If Empery Digital's market capitalization has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, this may represent a relatively lower downside risk (assuming the company has no significant debt).

3. Analyze the company's cash burn rate

Evaluate the company's operating costs and cash reserves. Companies with high burn rates may be forced to sell Bitcoin when stock prices fall, further exacerbating the pressure.

4. Consider Alternatives to Directly Holding Bitcoin

For investors looking to gain exposure to Bitcoin, directly holding Bitcoin or investing in a Bitcoin ETF may be an alternative to mitigate these specific risks.

Conclusion: The Awakening Moment of the PIPE Dream

The "golden age" of Bitcoin financial companies rapidly expanding through PIPE financing may be coming to an end. As more and more PIPE stocks are unlocked and flood the market, these companies are facing severe price pressure and potential valuation resets.

This development is worth close attention for the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. If a large number of Bitcoin financial companies are forced to sell their holdings of Bitcoin, it may create short-term pressure on the price of Bitcoin. However, in the long run, this could help the market eliminate participants that overly rely on financing rather than sustainable business models.

Regardless of the outcome, the widespread application of the PIPE financing model in Bitcoin financial companies and its potential consequences provide investors with an important case study on how innovative financing tools can create opportunities while also bringing risks in emerging markets.