CryptoQuant Founder: The Bitcoin bull run cycle has ended, and a reversal will take at least six months.

Odaily News CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin bull run cycle has ended for the following reasons: On-chain data contains a concept known as realized market cap. The way it works is as follows: when BTC enters a blockchain wallet, it is considered a “buy,” and when it leaves, it is considered a “sell.” Using this idea, one can estimate the average cost basis of each wallet, multiplying it by the amount of BTC held to arrive at the total realized market cap, which is generally viewed as the total capital that has entered the Bitcoin market through actual on-chain activities, while market cap is based on the latest trading prices on exchanges. When selling pressure is low, even small purchases can drive up prices, thereby increasing market capitalization. The strategy takes advantage of this by issuing convertible bonds and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, with the book value of the Bitcoin they hold increasing far beyond the actual capital invested. However, when selling pressure is high, even large purchases cannot change the price; for example, when the trading price of Bitcoin approaches $100,000, the market trading volume is huge, but the price hardly changes. The actual market value shows how much real capital has entered the market, while the market value reflects how prices respond. If the actual market value is increasing but the market value is stagnating or declining, it indicates that capital is flowing in, but prices are not rising—this is a typical bearish signal. On the other hand, if the actual market value remains flat while the market value skyrockets, it suggests that even a small amount of new capital is driving up prices—this is a bullish signal. What we are seeing now is the former, where capital is entering the market, but prices are not responding, which is a typical characteristic of a bear market. In short: when small capital drives prices up, it is a bull run. When even large capital cannot push prices up, it is a bear market. Current data clearly points to the latter. Selling pressure may ease at any time, but historically, a true reversal takes at least six months — therefore, a short-term rebound seems unlikely.