#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

Gold global short-term (1–3 months): oscillating at high levels, difficult to surge significantly or drop sharply
Current (April 13): London Gold approximately $4,746 per ounce

- Main tone: mainly oscillating, most likely trading sideways in the $4,500–$4,800 range.
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- Resistance to rise:
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- Weak expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts (possibly only once in the year, after September)
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- The US dollar and US Treasury yields are relatively high, suppressing gold prices
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- Profit-taking pressure from previous gains
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- Support for decline:
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- Tensions in the Middle East (Hormuz) increase, safe-haven demand
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- Global central banks continue to buy large amounts of gold
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- Gold supply-demand gap widens (about 320 tons by 2026)
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- Conclusion: short-term it’s difficult to sustain a sharp rise or a deep fall; more likely to oscillate back and forth.

 

Medium to long-term (6–12 months): high probability of further increase, breaking new highs

- Core bullish logic remains unchanged:
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1. The Federal Reserve will eventually cut rates (mainstream expectation to start in September)
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- Rate cuts → real interest rates decline → opportunity cost of holding gold decreases → gold prices rise
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2. Geopolitical risks normalize (Middle East, Taiwan Strait, election year)
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- Escalation of conflicts can trigger sharp surges in gold prices
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3. De-dollarization + central bank gold purchases (long-term strong support)
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- Multiple countries divesting from the dollar and buying gold, providing strong bottom support
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4. Tight supply and demand
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- Mineral growth slow (1–2%), demand stable, increasing supply gap
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- Mainstream institutional forecasts (by end of 2026):
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- Goldman Sachs: $5,400
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- JPMorgan Chase: $6,300
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- World Gold Council: baseline $4,830–$5,290, optimistic $5,290–$5,980
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- UBS: average price $5,000

 

Summary in one sentence (2026)
Short-term oscillation and bottoming, medium to long-term (second half of the year) more likely to rise again and reach new highs.