ETH 2070：Sideways Luring More Buyers? Don't Give Your Principal to Dog Whales Filling Holes!

Pangdun pushed the door open. She's a female classmate of mine from the system back in the county town.

She happened to be having a gathering on this street at noon and stopped by to sit for a while.

I asked, "Weekend, didn't you go keep your billionaire old guy from Wuhan company?"

She said, "I saw him the day before yesterday."

I asked, "Any substantial progress?"

She said, "Sort of. I looked at the lawsuits over his property disputes. If they get executed, it's at least 100 million. He also promised that once we get the marriage certificate, he'll leave 30 million for our future kids."

I said, "Just one principle: the belt can loosen, but the wallet absolutely cannot."

She got anxious: "You're underestimating me! He's like a dragon stuck in a swamp right now. 30 million is just a drop in the bucket for him. As long as I don't spend money and just help him run some projects, worst case it's just some time, he can't trick anything out of me."

I took a sip of tea and didn't lecture further.

I only asked her one question: "A man who truly has tens of millions in savings, why doesn't he even have someone around to run errands for him? Why does he need you to help him ask people for favors at dinner tables?"

When something is abnormal, there's always something fishy.

What the old guy was after was exactly her kind of cheap supposedly-clever free labor and emotional value. Drawing a 100 million pie, not spending a single cent, freeloading.

After Pangdun left, Director Song sighed.

He said, "This woman is finished. It's just like us trying to catch falling knives on those crashed bad assets—always thinking we got a bargain."

I said, "Right."

He said, "In this kind of extreme market, how much ammunition do you still have?"

I said, "50% of funds in defensive funds, 1 million cash for flexibility, absolutely no high leverage or full positions."

He said, "In a market like this, 1 million defense is too little. Buffett now has 55% in cash—that's the ultimate defensive stance. We must always respect the market."

I said, "Right, always think about survival first, then think about making money."

Back at the studio, I glanced at the ETH chart.

Looking at the candlesticks, I suddenly felt that retail traders going all-in for longs right now are exactly like Pangdun.

Always thinking they've met a "down-on-his-luck whale" at the bottom, and as long as they hold on, they'll get a cut of that 100 million after the whale pumps the price.

Look at $ETH 's behavior these past few days.

Yesterday it pumped to 2209, that massive pin bar was the whale's last spasm after taking Viagra.

Looked fierce, but actually had no staying power.

Now that the drug wore off, the price is lying limp around 2075 playing dead.

The whale set a trap in this narrow box between 2060 and 2090.

Just like that Wuhan old guy, drawing a 30 million pie, actually not wanting to spend a single cent.

Not even a trace of volume on the chart. What is the main force waiting for?

Waiting for you bunch of "Pangduns" to fill in liquidity yourselves!

The 2120 to 2140 zone above is packed with ghosts trapped from chasing the top earlier, with selling pressure heavy enough to crush people.

Hunters don't die from waiting. Going to the middle price now to catch falling knives, getting slapped from both sides.

Remember what I told Director Song: do extreme defense first, then talk about attacking.

Old Bao's script today is only shorting from above. Only enter once you're sure.

Tactical direction: Short $ETH
Ambush zone: 2110 - 2125 range. Wait patiently! Wait for the price to retest the resistance above, the moment volume can't follow, the lure is over—go short directly.

Strict stop loss: Real break above 2168. This is strong resistance. If it breaks through, it means the whale really has real money to pump the price, the old guy really has 100 million in his account. The entire logic inverts, admit the error, immediately cut losses and leave, absolutely no holding positions!

Batch take profits: First target 2060, second target 2020. Reduce positions when reaching these levels, lock in profits, don't eat the tail.

In this bloodthirsty world, nobody will sympathize with the weak.

You think you're catching the whale's bottom, but the whale is eyeing your principal.