#MSCI未来或纳入数字资产财库企业 $DASH $BCH $CHZ

The Federal Reserve has done it again—Trump suddenly shifts stance, Powell temporarily survives, but this battle over the independence of the Federal Reserve has just entered a heated phase!

【The first variable: What exactly is Trump's "concession"?】

On the surface, he says "no plans" to dismiss Powell, but in reality, he is laying out a backup plan—naming former director Wosh and ex-White House official Hasset as potential successors, and emphasizing that "the final decision is still far away."
Does this look like a retreat? Clearly, it’s a warning shot. Not acting today doesn’t mean no action next year. Once trusted allies take over, the Federal Reserve could very well become a tool for rate cuts.

【The second variable: The real dilemma revealed by the Beige Book】

Eight regions claim "moderate growth"? Don’t be fooled by this rhetoric.
Consumer spending relies on holiday boosts, employment data barely holding steady, but prices are still creeping up—tariff impacts have already affected all over the U.S. PPI remains high, and inflation shows no signs of sleeping.

【Why is the market陷入 this dilemma?】

First, political pressure persists—policy variables are too large, and the direction can change at any time.
Second, economic data are contradictory—growth depends on consumption, inflation can’t be suppressed, and the Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma again. Policy maneuvering space is being squeezed step by step.
Third, the power struggle is still ongoing—the Department of Justice investigation hasn’t stopped, and global central banks are watching. This unseen game is far from over.

💡一句话警示：任何看起来的"好消息"都可能只是诱饵。
CPI data and non-farm employment reports are the two indicators that truly determine the direction. Data contradict each other, political factors intertwine, and the market has been swayed back and forth—this has become the norm.

话题留言：鲍威尔真的能撑完任期吗？如果"两位凯文"接班，会不会直接开启无限降息模式？