Federal Reserve tetap diam? Data ketenagakerjaan Januari mengungkapkan kebenaran pasar tenaga kerja

【Block Rhythm】Recently, federal officials wrote an analysis of the latest employment report, pointing out that December’s data gave the Fed sufficient reason to remain on the sidelines this month. Specifically, non-farm employment added only 50,000 jobs, which is a rather weak performance. More notably, the three-month average hiring in the private sector has dropped to 29,000, marking the second-lowest for the year.

These figures reflect not just a temporary fluctuation, but the emergence of a new trend in the 2025 labor market — “slow hiring, slow layoffs.” Companies are contracting, but at a modest pace, with the overall market in a cautious and wait-and-see state.

However, the unemployment rate has not continued to rise, temporarily alleviating market concerns about rapid deterioration in the labor market. It was precisely the concerns about employment prospects over the previous months that drove the Fed to cut rates three consecutive times. Now the market has largely locked in a consensus: the Fed will likely pause rate cuts at its January 27-28 meeting and remain on the sidelines. That said, the weakness in hiring data also means that discussions around whether the labor market is truly healthy are far from over.