Recent developments in the Federal Reserve personnel shifts have emerged, but what you should really care about may not be who takes the chair next, but rather how monetary policy will shift.

Let's first look at what the latest statements from the frontrunner, Hassett, have said. He directly responded to those doubts about "whether he can keep the situation under control," with a quite firm attitude: "Someone who has been interrogated at the White House for five consecutive years is tough enough to win any debate." This is not just empty talk to the media, but a signal to the market.

Hassett's stance is very clear—he has long believed that the previous chair's rate cuts were too slow. Moreover, his views are highly aligned with the current president's stance. Interestingly, he also pointed out a sensitive timing point: the U.S. started cutting rates before the 2024 election but hit the brakes after the new government took office in 2025. In his view, this rhythm "does not seem like a purely economic decision, but rather political in nature."

However, the market should not rush to automatically imagine positive scenarios. Many people, upon seeing "hawkish opposition to current policy + possible rate cuts," immediately picture liquidity flooding, risk assets soaring, and Bitcoin rallying. But reality is much more complex.

The most core point: the Federal Reserve is not decided by the chair alone. Final decisions depend on the majority vote of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Even if the Trump administration nominates Hassett, it does not mean he can directly push for aggressive rate cuts.

For cryptocurrencies, opportunities and risks coexist. The good side is that the market has already begun to price in expectations of "potentially looser policies in the future." As long as the rate cut topic remains under discussion, Bitcoin and Ethereum have valuation support. Moreover, policy uncertainty itself is beneficial for decentralized assets—this ambiguous space often attracts safe-haven capital inflows.

But risks are also evident. What if the rate cut expectations ultimately fall short? The market will experience "expectation gap kills," and valuation pressures will be unavoidable. Even worse, heated political debates could lead to more frequent and emotional macroeconomic volatility. If internal Fed negotiations prolong, the market may experience frequent whipsaws, increasing the chances of retail investors getting caught.

Ultimately, this is not a matter of "who becomes chair," but rather that U.S. monetary policy is being priced by the market as a political variable. The clear implication for the crypto market is: as long as the "rate cut controversy" remains on the table, Bitcoin will not easily turn bearish. The real risk to watch out for is not the rate cuts themselves, but the market prematurely treating "possibility" as "certainty," waiting for a sudden reversal triggered by some event.