Brent crude oil prices surged to $119, a jump of 25%, while the US stock and bond markets opened lower. The Japanese, Korean, and European stock markets also show signs of a crash! This is a typical re-pricing under “inflation panic + geopolitical risk,” and historically, such double declines in stocks and bonds have led to Bitcoin’s sharp drop (see Chart 2 below). The triple declines in 2018, 2020, and 2022 saw Bitcoin fall by at least 50%! The price range of Brent crude oil is a “thermometer” for the global economy and financial markets (see Chart 3 below). The current spike to 119 indicates a supply crisis and runaway inflation. It can be said that the current rebound is a short squeeze and a trap before the US stock market opens, as well as the upper shadow of the weekly candlestick, with Wednesday’s CPI, Friday’s PCE, and next week’s Federal Reserve rate decision. $74,000 might be the top of this rebound, and in March, we could see Bitcoin at $50,000 and $ETH at 1400!

Bearish

The market is preparing for growth: At the current price of 67,109 USDT, Bitcoin demonstrates resilience amid global geopolitical risks and increasing institutional interest (including ETF investments and corporate purchases). The growth potential is supported by capital inflows into stablecoins and a rising risk appetite among major investors. $BTC