Many people are saying that the "four-year cycle" of Bitcoin has become invalid, but upon closer reflection, this cycle may have already become obsolete, it’s just that everyone still needs it to continue existing.

To put it simply, the four-year cycle has never been a mathematical law; it’s more like a hopeful narrative woven by successive generations of investors. Whenever the price drops, someone comes out and says "Don’t worry, wait for the halving rally"; when the trend enters sideways consolidation, others explain "The cycle hasn’t reached that point yet." There are always reasons, as long as you want to hear them.

The real issue here isn’t whether the cycle itself is accurate, but a deeper psychological dilemma—if there were no framework of this four-year cycle, if there were no seemingly reasonable explanation, would you still dare to hold Bitcoin? Could you endure the anxiety caused by those fluctuations?

Perhaps Bitcoin’s price will continue to rise in the future, but the driving force may not be the halving event itself, but the collective belief of all participants that there will be another bull-bear cycle. This collective consensus, to some extent, becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

From another perspective, the four-year cycle is less a physical law or economic principle, and more a kind of "faith system" in the crypto market. What people truly insist on is their belief in the cycle itself, or rather, the stories of those who once made money during a certain cycle.

What do you think? Do you believe in the cycle itself, or in the memories of others who profited during the cycle?