#创作者冲榜

Early Morning Sharp Drop Washes Face--Longs May Welcome Short-Term Bottom-Fishing Opportunity

I just said yesterday that the weekend would be a bland market with no major fluctuations, but this morning I woke up to get slapped in the face. Bitcoin plunged nearly 2000 points at dawn, hitting a low around 68,200. Seeing the market move, I quickly opened my account, went all-in on spot positions and opened some long orders. Little Fortune God still maintains the previous view that before there's an effective break below 68,500 (spike lows don't count), the short-term outlook remains bullish. The decline may be a good opportunity for bottom-fishing.

👉 Let's first look at why it dropped this morning:

From a news perspective, Israel said it would "significantly increase" military strikes on Iran with the US; the US is sending reinforcements to the Middle East to "unblock" the Strait of Hormuz or seize Kharg Island, and British nuclear-powered submarines have arrived in the Arabian Sea. In summary, there's risk of further escalation and spillover of conflict, which may be the only reason currently to explain the market decline. However, by now the impact of the Iran conflict on financial markets, especially the crypto space, has been fully priced in. Moreover, since the Iran war broke out, Bitcoin has appreciated over 10% overall, outperforming gold, US dollar and other assets in the same period.

👉 Therefore, temporary headwinds are insufficient to exert sustained price pressure on Bitcoin. I believe this morning's decline is more likely a major player's washout, mainly for these 3 reasons:

First, institutional capital is beginning to shift direction

Subtle changes in capital flows provide solid support for Bitcoin's short-term rebound. The ETF capital outflow trend that persisted for months since November 2025 significantly narrowed to $206 million in February 2026, declining 94% from peak levels, indicating that the selling pressure from institutional capital has weakened substantially. BlackRock and other institutions saw single-day net outflows reaching $400 million, but recent data shows institutional capital flows are slowing noticeably, with some institutions even beginning modest increases. This contrasts sharply with the early 2026 situation where US ETFs reversed from being "largest buyers" to net sellers.

Second, technical indicators

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's current price is approaching key support levels with strong rebound momentum. Bitcoin has halved from its 2025 peak of $126,000 to $66,000. Its Z-score relative to gold has fallen to -1.24, approaching the sensitive zone that triggers revenge rebounds. Historical data shows that when the Z-score drops below -1, Bitcoin tends to experience significant bounces.

Additionally, Bitcoin has strong support around 68,500 on the weekly chart, which is a defensible position for the bulls. On the daily chart, the MACD indicator has formed a "death cross." Whether the "rebound after death cross" pattern will play out again is worth watching.

Third, positive signals from on-chain data

Address clusters holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin have been modestly accumulating since February 25, 2026—a signal deserving close attention. These addresses typically represent professional investors and institutions, and their accumulation behavior often signals an approaching market bottom. After December 2025, "whale" addresses had sold 170,000 Bitcoin, but recent on-chain data shows whale selling pressure has obviously weakened, with some whales even beginning to accumulate on dips, indicating short-term selling pressure in the market is nearing its end.

📊 Bottom-fishing strategy: Assuming this Bitcoin decline is confirmed as a false breakdown, you can adopt a staged bottom-fishing strategy with controlled positions and risk. First, at Bitcoin's current price level, enter 10% of position for testing. When price breaks below $68,500, add another 20% of position. If it breaks the $68,000 round level, stop loss and exit.

What's your take on this morning's drop? Are you currently bullish or bearish? Take sides in the comments~