$BTC Bitcoin Evening Analysis
✅Entry reference: Rebound to the 76,400-76,700 range, gradually take small positions to short, stop-loss above 77,200 (which is the 1-hour Bollinger middle band resistance).
✅Target levels:
First target: Watch the intraday low at 75,600, reduce positions to protect capital;
Second target: After breaking below 75,600, look towards the 74,800-74,500 range.
✅The current major trend is bearish, and rebounds are opportunities to add to short positions. Do not chase longs; wait for a confirmed resistance level on the rebound.
✅Long position idea
✅Entry reference: Rebound to the 75,600-75,800 range without breaking, try a small long position, stop-loss below 75,400.
✅Target levels: Focus only on the 76,300-76,600 range, exit once reached, don’t be greedy.
The bearish trend isn’t over yet. Long positions should only be used for short-term oversold corrections. Take profits quickly and don’t try to bottom fish for big rebounds, as it’s easy to get trapped, especially when the trend is large and the correction small.
Technical Logic
4 Hours
Bitcoin is currently in a solid downtrend, with the price directly breaking below the Bollinger lower band, hovering near the 75,600 low.
The MACD red histogram is still rising, indicating the bearish momentum hasn’t fully exhausted. Although RSI shows some oversold conditions and a small rebound might occur, the overall trend remains downward. Resistance levels at 77,000 and 77,800 are real barriers, making it difficult to push higher.
1 Hour
The 1-hour Bollinger bands are opening downward, with the price sliding along the lower band, unable to reach the middle band at 76,600. This is a classic weak downward move.
The MACD red histogram has shrunk slightly but remains below zero, indicating weak rebound momentum. Any rise is just an opportunity to add to short positions, not a sign of reversal.
15 Minutes
The 15-minute chart shows some signs of minor recovery, with the price pulling up from lows and RSI moving up from oversold territory, but that’s about it.
Resistance at 76,300 and 76,600 remains significant; if the price can’t break through, it will continue downward. If the intraday low at 75,600 can’t hold, the next support zone is around 74,000-74,500.