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布伦特原油价格冲到了119美元,暴涨25%,美股和美债却开跌,日韩欧洲股市也有崩盘趋势!
这是典型的 “通胀恐慌 + 地缘风险” 下的再定价,从历史看这种股债双杀都导致了比特币的暴跌(如下图2)。
2018、2020和2022三次双杀,比特币最少跌50%以上!
布伦特原油的价格区间,是全球经济和金融市场的 “温度计”(如下图3),现在直接爆拉到119,说明供应危机、通胀失控。
可以说现在的反弹是美股开盘之前的逼空和诱多,以及周线的转换的上影线,周三CPI、周五PCE还有下周的美联储利率决议,74000美元可能就是这轮反弹的顶部了,3月会看到5万的比特币和1400的$ETH !