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Polymarket 观察到交易者在极端波动中交易。一位交易者在24小时内纯利润高达 $6 百万——听起来难以置信,对吧?但事情变得有趣的地方在于:这位交易者在那次胜利之前,仅在35天内就亏损了超过 $2 百万。即使拥有51%的胜率,数字也显示预测市场有多么残酷。
这并不是一个一夜暴富的故事。它是一个现实的提醒。预测市场吸引了追求超额回报的大胆赌徒,但数学是无情的。一个精彩的日子并不能抹去数周的亏损,而仓位规模比大多数交易者意识到的更为重要。无论你是在链上预测平台交易还是其他地方,这种模式——巨额收益随后遭遇惨重回撤——都应该让你对仓位管理三思而后行。