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#预测市场 预测市场又搞大事情了,Gemini在Kalshi的获胜概率直接拉到86%?这涨幅绝了。年初才30%的概率,现在翻了接近3倍,说明这一年Gemini确实没闲着。
反观ChatGPT从41%跌到8%,感觉有点冷。不过想想也正常,大模型这赛道竞争本来就激烈,一步跟不上就容易被甩开。交易量都干到1408万美元了,看来对这事儿感兴趣的资金还不少。
最有意思的是Grok从14%涨到6%,好家伙,这是跌了还是咋的?感觉xAI的热度还是没跟上来。不过最终还是要看LM Arena排行榜的数据说话,现在下这个赌注还有点早。币圈人最擅长的就是预测,这次能不能押对就看眼光了。