March 16, 2026 Spot Silver Morning Analysis

Last week, silver surged initially then pulled back significantly, closing lower on the weekly chart. Early in the week, prices fluctuated at high levels. In the latter half of the week, affected by US dollar strength and cooling Fed rate cut expectations, silver continued to decline sharply. International silver prices fell from around $97 to below $80, with domestic Shanghai silver dropping in sync, showing greater volatility than gold—a deep correction after profit-taking at higher levels.

The main bearish factor is that the probability of a Fed rate cut in March has dropped to zero, with June rate cut expectations pushed back. Rising US dollar and Treasury yields are pressuring silver prices. Cooling safe-haven sentiment, excessively large previous gains triggering concentrated fund outflows, and lack of obvious positive industrial demand—silver weakens under these triple pressures. This week's focus is on the Fed's policy meeting. A hawkish tilt will continue to weigh on prices, while a dovish tone could present rebound opportunities.

In the short term, bears have the advantage. International silver's key support is at 78-80 USD; a break below will test $75. Upside resistance is at 83-85 USD; a failed rebound above this level remains weak. Domestic Shanghai silver faces support at 20,000 yuan/kg with resistance at 21,000-21,500 yuan/kg. Daily indicators show oversold conditions but no clear reversal signals yet.

Morning strategy: With silver prices currently consolidating around $80, stay bullish with minimal action. If it stabilizes at 78-80 USD, consider light long positions with stop loss below 77; target the 83-85 range. Overall, treat as range consolidation, avoid chasing orders, and await the Fed meeting for directional confirmation.

The above is merely personal advice for reference only and does not constitute investment basis. Please refer to Cheng Jingsheng Shi Pan's specific layout for guidance! $XAG ‌#XAG