Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin and software stocks have been showing truly unique behavior. Since the end of February, as geopolitical tensions have increased, Bitcoin has been moving upward while tech shares have been heading in the complete opposite direction. During this time, Bitcoin has gained more than 5%, whereas the iShares Expanded Technology Software Industry ETF has fallen more than 2%. The correlation between the two has changed exponentially - dropping suddenly from 1.0 to 0.13, then bouncing back toward 0.7.

What I am seeing is that two different market stories are unfolding simultaneously. The pressure on the software sector is mainly related to the impact of AI — meaning there’s a fear that SaaS companies’ profitability could be threatened by AI. On the other hand, Bitcoin is playing a different role — it has started acting as a macro-hedged asset as global uncertainty rises. This divergence is very significant because it shows that the market is now valuing different asset classes differently.
And at the beginning of April, when I saw a net inflow of $4.71 billion into the spot Bitcoin ETF in a single day — the highest in over a month — I realized how institutional investors are currently viewing Bitcoin. The pattern is also clear from data cookies that can be tracked — serious capital is flowing into Bitcoin. The market is now clearly distinguishing between risk-on and risk-off assets.