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CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Significant Disruptions in Nickel Market Supply
Indonesia adjusts HPM pricing formula; the differences before and after the formula adjustment may passively increase smelting link costs.
Combined with the impact of Middle East tensions, Indonesia’s sulfur supply has been disrupted, and the wet process project is expected to be most severely affected.
The support from integrated electric nickel costs may significantly rise.
In addition, concerns about other policies in Indonesia remain; although the plan to levy nickel export taxes has been delayed, Indonesia has also indicated that it may introduce other schemes to replace the export tax.
Regarding mineral supply, Indonesia stated that 90% of nickel ore quotas have been approved, and the approval process has accelerated.
However, even with faster RKAB approvals, the tightness in mineral supply remains a concern in the short term due to the lack of additional quota releases.
Overall, nickel market supply disruptions are evident, and the response to weak demand has been somewhat muted, with prices showing strong resilience.
(China CITIC Construction Investment Futures)